Abstract The paper explores the possibilities of creating an econometric model for making short-term forecasts of the Gross Domestic Product of Bosnia and Herzegovina (GDP of B&H). Its aim is to determine the most representative and most efficient model for forecasting the quarterly GDP of B&H. This is the first paper that simultaneously compares ARIMA models, bridge models and factor models in three different time periods. All variables are available for the period of 2006q1-2016q4. The final choice of the model for forecasting the quarterly GDP of B&H was selected on the basis of a comparative analysis of the predictive efficiency of the analysed models. Based on the obtained results, the most efficient model for forecasting quarterly GDP of B&H is the bridge model, which includes four variables as regressor: Retail sale of other goods, Total loans, Manufacturing and Manufacture of food products.

ABSTRACT Introduction The discovery of the anticonvulsant properties of valproic acid and the development of valproic acid/valproate to market authorization for specific epilepsy types and syndromes, as well as their repurposing for other indications, are illustrative examples of both the strengths and weaknesses of drug development strategies. Areas covered This review summarizes and interprets the development and repurposing history of valproic acid/valproate. The article is based on articles, including original studies and systematic reviews obtained from PubMed, Scopus, EBSCO, SCIndeks and Google Scholar databases. Expert opinion Random screening and careful observation of the experimental effects of tested substances were crucial for discovering the anticonvulsant effects of valproic acid, while rational drug design and clinical observation strategies led to repurposing valproic acid and valproate for bipolar disorder maintenance treatmentand prevention of migraine attacks. Early planning and feasibility studies of future clinical trials are essential for obtaining marketing authorization of new substances or new indications of old anticonvulsants. Significant progress has been made recently toward understanding, treatment and prevention of hepatotoxicity caused by valproic acid/valproate, making its long-term administration safer. There are ongoing efforts to repurpose valproic acid/valproate for augmentation with antipsychotic drugs for the treatment of schizophrenia.

Atrial fibrillation (AF) often co‐exists with renal function (RF) impairment. We investigated the characteristics and management of AF patients across creatinine clearance strata and potential changes in the use of nonvitamin K oral anticoagulants (NOAC) according to different equations for estimation of RF.

Abstract Background von Willebrand factor (VWF) is crucial for arterial thrombosis and its plasma levels are increased in acute coronary syndromes (ACSs). The effects of conventional platelet inhibitors are compromised by elevated VWF under high shear rates. BT200 is a third-generation aptamer that binds and inhibits the A1 domain of human VWF. This article aims to study whether VWF is a predictor of mortality in ACS patients under potent P2Y12 blocker therapy and to examine the effects of a VWF inhibiting aptamer BT200 and its concentrations required to inhibit VWF in plasma samples of patients with ACS. Methods VWF activity was measured in 320 patients with ACS, and concentration effect curves of BT200 were established in plasma pools containing different VWF concentrations. Results Median VWF activity in patients was 170% (interquartile range % confidence interval [CI]: 85–255) and 44% of patients had elevated (> 180%) VWF activity. Plasma levels of VWF activity predicted 1-year (hazard ratio [HR]: 2.68; 95% CI: 1.14–6.31; p < 0.024) and long-term (HR: 2.59; 95% CI: 1.10–6.09) mortality despite treatment with potent platelet inhibitors (dual-antiplatelet therapy with aspirin and prasugrel or ticagrelor). Although half-maximal concentrations were 0.1 to 0.2 µg/mL irrespective of baseline VWF levels, increasing concentrations (0.42–2.13 µg/mL) of BT200 were needed to lower VWF activity to < 20% of normal in plasma pools containing increasing VWF activity (p < 0.001). Conclusion VWF is a predictor of all-cause mortality in ACS patients under contemporary potent P2Y12 inhibitor therapy. BT200 effectively inhibited VWF activity in a target concentration-dependent manner.

Antibody responses vary widely between individuals1, complicating the correct classification of low-titer measurements using conventional assay cut-offs. We found all participants in a clinically diverse cohort of SARS-CoV-2 PCR+ individuals (n=105) – and n=33 PCR+ hospital staff – to have detectable IgG specific for pre-fusion-stabilized spike (S) glycoprotein trimers, while 98% of persons had IgG specific for the receptor-binding domain (RBD). However, anti-viral IgG levels differed by several orders of magnitude between individuals and were associated with disease severity, with critically ill patients displaying the highest anti-viral antibody titers and strongest in vitro neutralizing responses. Parallel analysis of random healthy blood donors and pregnant women (n=1,000) of unknown serostatus, further demonstrated highly variable IgG titers amongst seroconverters, although these were generally lower than in hospitalized patients and included several measurements that scored between the classical 3 and 6SD assay cut-offs. Since the correct classification of seropositivity is critical for individual- and population-level metrics, we compared different probabilistic algorithms for their ability to assign likelihood of past infection. To do this, we used tandem anti-S and -RBD IgG responses from our PCR+ individuals (n=138) and a large cohort of historical negative controls (n=595) as training data, and generated an equal-weighted learner from the output of support vector machines and linear discriminant analysis. Applied to test samples, this approach provided a more quantitative way to interpret anti-viral titers over a large continuum, scrutinizing measurements overlapping the negative control background more closely and offering a probability-based diagnosis with potential clinical utility. Especially as most SARS-CoV-2 infections result in asymptomatic or mild disease, these platform-independent approaches improve individual and epidemiological estimates of seropositivity, critical for effective management of the pandemic and monitoring the response to vaccination.

Serological studies are critical for understanding pathogen-specific immune responses and informing public health measures (1,2). By developing highly sensitive and specific trimeric spike (S)-based antibody tests, we report IgM, IgG and IgA responses to SARS-CoV-2 in COVID-19 patients (n=105) representing different categories of disease severity. All patients surveyed were IgG positive against S. Elevated anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibody levels were associated with hospitalization, with IgA titers, increased circulating IL-6 and strong neutralizing responses indicative of intensive care status. Antibody-positive blood donors and pregnant women sampled during the pandemic in Stockholm, Sweden (weeks 14-25), displayed on average lower titers and weaker neutralizing responses compared to patients; however, inter-individual anti-viral IgG titers differed up to 1,000-fold. To provide more accurate estimates of seroprevalence, given the frequency of weak responders and the limitations associated with the dichotomization of a continuous variable (3,4), we used a Bayesian approach to assign likelihood of past infection without setting an assay cut-off. Analysis of blood donors (n=1,000) and pregnant women (n=900) sampled weekly demonstrated SARS-CoV-2-specific IgG in 7.2% (95% Bayesian CI [5.1-9.5]) of individuals two months after the peak of spring 2020 COVID-19 deaths. Seroprevalence in these otherwise healthy cohorts increased steeply before beginning to level-off, following the same trajectory as the Stockholm region deaths over this time period.

Laboratory-based cadaveric training is essential for the development and refinement of neurosurgical technical skills in the operating room and has become an integral training component around the world. Postresidency fellowship—the first pillar of skull base surgery training—includes both hands-on clinical care and surgery supervised by an experienced skull base surgeon. Time is spent in a skull base laboratory practicing approaches and developing anatomic mastery. The second pillar includes formal skull-base courses—institutional dissection laboratories provide continuous anatomic and surgical education while complementary annual or semiannual cadaver courses gather recognized experts to share their knowledge and experience in an essential 2- to 3-day setting. In this paper, we present the history of the longest running annual skull-base cadaver microsurgical course, which was started by Dr. Ossama Al-Mefty: Annual Surgical Approaches to the Skull Base Course. At the Microscopic and Endoscopic Hands-on Cadaver Workshop, held in St. Louis, Missouri, we celebrated its 30th anniversary in April 2019. We also present the impact this course has had on neurosurgery and skull base surgery and on the professional and scientific developments of its participants in particular.