The deployment of diverse data-generating technologies in livestock farming holds the promise of early disease detection and improved animal well-being. In this paper, we combine routinely collected dairy farm and herd data with weather and high frequency sensor data from 6 farms to predict new lameness events in various future periods, spanning from the following day to 3 weeks. A Random Forest classifier, using input features selected by the Boruta Algorithm, was used for the prediction task; effects of individual features were further assessed using partial dependence plots. We achieve precision scores of up to 93% when predicting lameness for the next 3 weeks and when using information from the last 3 weeks, combined with a balanced accuracy of 79%. Removing sensor data results have tendency to reduce the precision for predictions, especially when using information from the last one,2 or 3 weeks. Moving to a larger data set (without sensor data) of 44 farms keeps the similar balanced accuracy but reduces precision by more than 30%, revealing a substantial a trade-off in model quality between false positives (false lameness alerts) and false negatives (missed lameness events). Sensor data holds promise to further improve the precision of these models, but can be partially compensated by high resolution data from other systems, such as automated milking systems.

An increasing number of countries are investigating options to stop the spread of the emerging zoonotic infection Salmonella (S.) Dublin, which mainly spreads among bovines and with cattle manure. Detailed surveillance and cattle movement data from an 11-year period in Denmark provided an opportunity to gain new knowledge for mitigation options through a combined social network and simulation modeling approach. The analysis revealed similar network trends for non-infected and infected cattle farms despite stringent cattle movement restrictions imposed on infected farms in the national control program. The strongest predictive factor for farms becoming infected was their cattle movement activities in the previous month, with twice the effect of local transmission. The simulation model indicated an endemic S. Dublin occurrence, with peaks in outbreak probabilities and sizes around observed cattle movement activities. Therefore, pre- and post-movement measures within a 1-mo time-window may help reduce S. Dublin spread.

Abstract Migration’s impact spans various social dimensions, including demography, sustainability, politics, economy, and gender disparities. Yet, the decision-making process behind migrants choosing their destination remains elusive. Existing models primarily rely on population size and travel distance to explain the spatial patterns of migration flows, overlooking significant population heterogeneities. Paradoxically, migrants often travel long distances and to smaller destinations if their diaspora is present in those locations. To address this gap, we propose the diaspora model of migration, incorporating intensity (the number of people moving to a country), and assortativity (the destination within the country). Our model considers only the existing diaspora sizes in the destination country, influencing the probability of migrants selecting a specific residence. Despite its simplicity, our model accurately reproduces the observed stable flow and distribution of migration in Austria (postal code level) and US metropolitan areas, yielding precise estimates of migrant inflow at various geographic scales. Given the increase in international migrations, this study enlightens our understanding of migration flow heterogeneities, helping design more inclusive, integrated cities.