The aim of this paper is to identify the basic characteristics of organic production in the agricultural sector of Bosnia and Herzegovina in terms of determining the scope, trends and flows in the selected time period. In terms of competitiveness, special emphasis is placed on the position of Bosnia and Herzegovina in the region. That is, a comparative review with the countries of the region according to the available indicators of organic production within the data of the Research Institute for Organic Production (FiBL). The analysis is focused on the changes of relevant indicators for Bosnia and Herzegovina and the countries of the region in the period from 2010 to 2020. The analysis was made using methods of dynamic analysis (index numbers, average annual rate of change, trend) and comparison methods. The results of the research can be a starting point for policy makers in support of the development of the agricultural sector.

Abstract The paper explores the possibilities of creating an econometric model for making short-term forecasts of the Gross Domestic Product of Bosnia and Herzegovina (GDP of B&H). Its aim is to determine the most representative and most efficient model for forecasting the quarterly GDP of B&H. This is the first paper that simultaneously compares ARIMA models, bridge models and factor models in three different time periods. All variables are available for the period of 2006q1-2016q4. The final choice of the model for forecasting the quarterly GDP of B&H was selected on the basis of a comparative analysis of the predictive efficiency of the analysed models. Based on the obtained results, the most efficient model for forecasting quarterly GDP of B&H is the bridge model, which includes four variables as regressor: Retail sale of other goods, Total loans, Manufacturing and Manufacture of food products.

The aim of this paper is to identify the basic characteristics of foreign trade of Bosnia and Herzegovina in terms of determining the volume, trends, geographic orientation, production structure and level of concentration of export-import flows in the selected time period, with emphasis on its trade with major partners, such as the EU and CEFTA. A special emphasis has been placed on exports as a driver of growth and development of the domestic economy. In order for the economy of Bosnia and Herzegovina to grow, creating jobs and increasing economic welfare of its citizens, it must focus on international trade, particularly the increase in the volume and value of exports. To say that the export is a requirement for survival may sound dramatic, but there can be no doubt that our country needs to improve its trading result. This reflects the importance of foreign trade. The focus of the analysis is placed on the dynamics and structure of the total exchange of B&H in the period from 2004 to 2018. Analysis was done using the appropriate method of dynamic analysis (index methods, average annual growth rate). The main results indicate not so positive trends for international trade of Bosnia and Herzegovina.

Abstract In the most developed countries the first estimations of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) are available 30 days after the end of the reference quarter. In this paper, possibilities of creating an econometric model for making short-term forecasts of GDP in B&H have been explored. The database consists of more than 100 daily, monthly and quarterly time series for the period 2006q1-2016q4. The aim of this study was to estimate and validate different factor models. Due to the length limit of the series, the factor analysis included 12 time series which had a correlation coefficient with a quarterly GDP at the absolute value greater than 0.8. The principal component analysis (PCA) and the orthogonal varimax rotation of the initial solution were applied. Three principal components are extracted from the set of the series, thus together accounting for 73.34% of the total variability of the given set of series. The final choice of the model for forecasting quarterly B&H GDP was selected based on a comparative analysis of the predictive efficiency of the analysed models for the in-sample period and for the out-of-sample period. The unbiasedness and efficiency of individual forecasts were tested using the Mincer-Zarnowitz regression, while a comparison of the accuracy of forecast of two models was tested by the Diebold-Mariano test. We have examined the justification of a combination of two forecasts using the Granger-Ramanathan regression. A factor model involving three factors has shown to be the most efficient factor model for forecasting quarterly B&H GDP.

Abstract This special issue of Business Systems Research is highlights recent advances and trends in post-transition countries, taking into account statistical modelling approach. Nine papers that have been selected for this special issue present improvements and new techniques (methodology) in statistical modelling and their use in various aspects of development in post-transition countries

Abstract Unlike the standard unidimensional poverty indices, based mostly on monetary poverty measures, multidimensional poverty indices may include numerous non-monetary poverty indicators. This study utilized fuzzy and Alkire – Foster (AF) and fuzzy methodology to assess the poverty level in Bosnia and Herzegovina (B&H) and to compare the results with official poverty assessments. In addition to consumption as a monetary measure, we constructed AF and fuzzy indices by including numerous non-monetary measures that indicate housing quality, possession of durable goods and the household structure. AF multidimensional indices for B&H are calculated based on data from Household Budget Surveys (2004, 2007 and 2011) and fuzzy poverty indices are calculated based on data from HBS 2011. This research has found the differences in the values, direction and dynamics between unidimensional and multidimensional approaches to poverty measurement. Authors state that it is not sufficient to base the creation of more efficient social policies and poverty reduction strategies exclusively on unidimensional indices that address just one dimension of poverty.

In this article, we propose a new methodology for solving the vendor selection and the supply quotas determination problem. The proposed methodology combines the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) for determining the coefficients of the objective functions and a new multiple objective programming method based on the cooperative game theory for vendor selection and supply quotas determination. The proposed methodology is tested on the problem of flour purchase by a company that manufactures bakery products. For vendor selection and supply quotas determination we use three complex criteria: (1) purchasing costs, (2) product quality, and (3) vendor reliability.