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Mirza Ponjavić

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With the decreasing reserves of conventional sources and the high emission of harmful gases caused by them, the inclusion of renewable energy sources in power system is increasing. However, to best utilize them, different site location criteria for PV generator installment need to be considered in the decision-making process. This paper presents Fuzzy Analytical Hierarchical Process (AHP) method used in energy planning to find the best Photovoltaic (PV) system site location for the established criteria and factors. Eight criteria were identified and evaluated. These include the solar energy potential, distance to the transmission line, PV surface slope, sunshine duration, the total amount of energy/PV, the temperature ratio, site survey, and performing shading analysis. PVGIS software tool is used to collect necessary data. Evaluation criteria are prioritized by applying fuzzy AHP, fuzzifying the inputs of the decision matrix using triangular fuzzy numbers. The obtained results and the methodology show potential in finding the best location where the PV system can be best utilized.

The outbreak of COVID-19 is a public health emergency that caused disastrous results in many countries. The global aim is to stop transmission and prevent the spread of the disease. To achieve it, every country needs to scale up emergency response mechanisms, educate and actively communicate with the public, intensify infected case finding, contact tracing, monitoring, quarantine of contacts, and isolation of cases. Responding to an emergency requires efficient collaboration and a multi-skilled approach (medical, information, statistical, political, social, and other expertise), which makes it hard to define one interface for all. As actors from different perspectives and domain backgrounds need to address diverse functions, the possibility to exchange available information quickly would be desirable. Geoportal provides an entry point to access a variety of data (geospatial data, epidemiological data) and could be used for data discovery, view, download, and transformation. It helps to deal with challenges like data analysis, confirmed cases geocoding, recognition of disease dynamics, vulnerable groups identification, and capacity mapping. Predicting and modeling the spread of infection, along with application support for communication and collaboration, are the biggest challenges. In response to all these challenges, we have established the Epidemic Location Intelligence System (ELIS) using open-source software components in the cloud, as a working platform with all the required functionalities.

Traffic management is a significantly difficult and demanding task. It is necessary to know the main parameters of road networks in order to adequately meet traffic management requirements. Through this paper, an integrated fuzzy model for ranking road sections based on four inputs and four outputs was developed. The goal was to determine the safety degree of the observed road sections by the methodology developed. The greatest contribution of the paper is reflected in the development of the improved fuzzy step-wise weight assessment ratio analysis (IMF SWARA) method and integration with the fuzzy measurement alternatives and ranking according to the compromise solution (fuzzy MARCOS) method. First, the data envelopment analysis (DEA) model was applied, showing that three road sections have a high traffic risk. After that, IMF SWARA was applied to determine the values of the weight coefficients of the criteria, and the fuzzy MARCOS method was used for the final ranking of the sections. The obtained results were verified through a three-phase sensitivity analysis with an emphasis on forming 40 new scenarios in which input values were simulated. The stability of the model was proven in all phases of sensitivity analysis.

S. Stanojević, Mirza Ponjavić, Slobodan Stanojević, A. Stevanovic, S. Radojicic

As a response to the pandemic caused by SARS-Cov-2 virus, on 15 March 2020, the Republic of Serbia introduced comprehensive anti-epidemic measures to curb COVID-19. After a slowdown in the epidemic, on 6 May 2020, the regulatory authorities decided to relax the implemented measures. However, the epidemiological situation soon worsened again. As of 7 February 2021, a total of 406,352 cases of SARSCov-2 infection have been reported in Serbia, 4,112 deaths caused by COVID-19. In order to better understand the epidemic dynamics and predict possible outcomes, we have developed an adaptive mathematical model SEAIHRDS (S-susceptible, E-exposed, A-asymptomatic, I-infected, H-hospitalized, R-recovered, d-dead due to COVID-19 infection, S-susceptible). The model can be used to simulate various scenarios of the implemented intervention measures and calculate possible epidemic outcomes, including the necessary hospital capacities. Considering promising results regarding the development of a vaccine against COVID-19, the model is extended to simulate vaccination among different population strata. The findings from various simulation scenarios have shown that, with implementation of strict measures of contact reduction, it is possible to control COVID-19 and reduce number of deaths. The findings also show that limiting effective contacts within the most susceptible population strata merits a special attention. However, the findings also show that the disease has a potential to remain in the population for a long time, likely with a seasonal pattern. If a vaccine, with efficacy equal or higher than 65%, becomes available it could help to significantly slow down or completely stop circulation of the virus in human population. The effects of vaccination depend primarily on: 1. Efficacy of available vaccine(s), 2. Prioritization of the population categories for vaccination, and 3. Overall vaccination coverage of the population, assuming that the vaccine(s) develop solid immunity in vaccinated individuals. With expected basic reproduction number of Ro=2.46 and vaccine efficacy of 68%, an 87% coverage would be sufficient to stop the virus circulation.

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