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Publikacije (37)

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The outbreak of COVID-19 is a public health emergency that caused disastrous results in many countries. The global aim is to stop transmission and prevent the spread of the disease. To achieve it, every country needs to scale up emergency response mechanisms, educate and actively communicate with the public, intensify infected case finding, contact tracing, monitoring, quarantine of contacts, and isolation of cases. Responding to an emergency requires efficient collaboration and a multi-skilled approach (medical, information, statistical, political, social, and other expertise), which makes it hard to define one interface for all. As actors from different perspectives and domain backgrounds need to address diverse functions, the possibility to exchange available information quickly would be desirable. Geoportal provides an entry point to access a variety of data (geospatial data, epidemiological data) and could be used for data discovery, view, download, and transformation. It helps to deal with challenges like data analysis, confirmed cases geocoding, recognition of disease dynamics, vulnerable groups identification, and capacity mapping. Predicting and modeling the spread of infection, along with application support for communication and collaboration, are the biggest challenges. In response to all these challenges, we have established the Epidemic Location Intelligence System (ELIS) using open-source software components in the cloud, as a working platform with all the required functionalities.

Traffic management is a significantly difficult and demanding task. It is necessary to know the main parameters of road networks in order to adequately meet traffic management requirements. Through this paper, an integrated fuzzy model for ranking road sections based on four inputs and four outputs was developed. The goal was to determine the safety degree of the observed road sections by the methodology developed. The greatest contribution of the paper is reflected in the development of the improved fuzzy step-wise weight assessment ratio analysis (IMF SWARA) method and integration with the fuzzy measurement alternatives and ranking according to the compromise solution (fuzzy MARCOS) method. First, the data envelopment analysis (DEA) model was applied, showing that three road sections have a high traffic risk. After that, IMF SWARA was applied to determine the values of the weight coefficients of the criteria, and the fuzzy MARCOS method was used for the final ranking of the sections. The obtained results were verified through a three-phase sensitivity analysis with an emphasis on forming 40 new scenarios in which input values were simulated. The stability of the model was proven in all phases of sensitivity analysis.

M. Hukić, Mirza Ponjavić, Emin Tahirovic, Almir Karabegović, E. Ferhatbegovic, Maja Travar, F. Serdarevic

Between March 5 and July 25, 2020, the total number of SARS-CoV-2 confirmed cases in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BH) was 10 090 corresponding to a cumulative incidence rate of 285.7 per 100 000 population. Demographic and clinical information on all the cases along with exposure and contact information was collected using a standardized case report form. In suspected SARS-CoV-2 cases, respiratory specimens were collected and tested by real-time reverse-transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (rRT-PCR) assay. The dynamic of the outbreak was summarized using epidemiological curves, instantaneous reproduction number Rt and interactive choropleth maps for geographical distribution and spread. The rate of hospitalization was 14.0% (790/5646) in Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina (FBH) and 6.2% (267/4299) in Republic of Srpska (RS). The death rate was 2.2% (122/5646) in FBH and 3.6% in the RS (155/4299). After the authorities lifted mandatory quarantine restrictions, the basic reproduction number increased from 1.13 on May, the 20th to 1.72 on May the 31st. The outbreak concerns both entities, Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina and Republika Srpska, and it is more pronounced in those aged 20-44 years. It is important to develop the communication and emergency plan for the SARS-CoV-2 outbreak in BH, including the mechanisms to allow the ongoing notification and updates at the national level.

Aim The damage caused by the COVID-19 pandemic has made the prevention of its further spread at the top of the list of priorities of many governments and state institutions responsible for health and civil protection around the world. This prevention implies an effective system of epidemiological surveillance and the application of timely and effective control measures. This research focuses on the application of techniques for modelling and geovisualization of epidemic data with the aim of simple and fast communication of analytical results via geoportal. Methods The paper describes the approach applied through the project of establishing the epidemiological location-intelligence system for monitoring the effectiveness of control measures in preventing the spread of COVID-19 in Bosnia and Herzegovina. Results Epidemic data were processed and the results related to spatio-temporal analysis of the infection spread were presented by compartmental epidemic model, reproduction number R, epi-curve diagrams as well as choropleth maps for different levels of administrative units. Geovisualization of epidemic data enabled the release of numerous information from described models and indicators, providing easier visual communication of the spread of the disease and better recognition of its trend. Conclusion The approach involves the simultaneous application of epidemic models and epidemic data geovisualization, which allows a simple and rapid evaluation of the epidemic situation and the effects of control measures. This contributes to more informative decision-making related to control measures by suggesting their selective application at the local level.

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