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Publikacije (37)

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Haris Ahmetović, Elmin Nukić, J. Hivziefendic, M. Saric, Mirza Ponjavić

With the decreasing reserves of conventional sources and the high emission of harmful gases caused by them, the inclusion of renewable energy sources in power system is increasing. However, to best utilize them, different site location criteria for PV generator installment need to be considered in the decision-making process. This paper presents Fuzzy Analytical Hierarchical Process (AHP) method used in energy planning to find the best Photovoltaic (PV) system site location for the established criteria and factors. Eight criteria were identified and evaluated. These include the solar energy potential, distance to the transmission line, PV surface slope, sunshine duration, the total amount of energy/PV, the temperature ratio, site survey, and performing shading analysis. PVGIS software tool is used to collect necessary data. Evaluation criteria are prioritized by applying fuzzy AHP, fuzzifying the inputs of the decision matrix using triangular fuzzy numbers. The obtained results and the methodology show potential in finding the best location where the PV system can be best utilized.

The outbreak of COVID-19 is a public health emergency that caused disastrous results in many countries. The global aim is to stop transmission and prevent the spread of the disease. To achieve it, every country needs to scale up emergency response mechanisms, educate and actively communicate with the public, intensify infected case finding, contact tracing, monitoring, quarantine of contacts, and isolation of cases. Responding to an emergency requires efficient collaboration and a multi-skilled approach (medical, information, statistical, political, social, and other expertise), which makes it hard to define one interface for all. As actors from different perspectives and domain backgrounds need to address diverse functions, the possibility to exchange available information quickly would be desirable. Geoportal provides an entry point to access a variety of data (geospatial data, epidemiological data) and could be used for data discovery, view, download, and transformation. It helps to deal with challenges like data analysis, confirmed cases geocoding, recognition of disease dynamics, vulnerable groups identification, and capacity mapping. Predicting and modeling the spread of infection, along with application support for communication and collaboration, are the biggest challenges. In response to all these challenges, we have established the Epidemic Location Intelligence System (ELIS) using open-source software components in the cloud, as a working platform with all the required functionalities.

Sabahudin Vrtagic, Edis Softic, Marko Subotić, Željko Stević, Milan Dordevic, Mirza Ponjavić

Traffic management is a significantly difficult and demanding task. It is necessary to know the main parameters of road networks in order to adequately meet traffic management requirements. Through this paper, an integrated fuzzy model for ranking road sections based on four inputs and four outputs was developed. The goal was to determine the safety degree of the observed road sections by the methodology developed. The greatest contribution of the paper is reflected in the development of the improved fuzzy step-wise weight assessment ratio analysis (IMF SWARA) method and integration with the fuzzy measurement alternatives and ranking according to the compromise solution (fuzzy MARCOS) method. First, the data envelopment analysis (DEA) model was applied, showing that three road sections have a high traffic risk. After that, IMF SWARA was applied to determine the values of the weight coefficients of the criteria, and the fuzzy MARCOS method was used for the final ranking of the sections. The obtained results were verified through a three-phase sensitivity analysis with an emphasis on forming 40 new scenarios in which input values were simulated. The stability of the model was proven in all phases of sensitivity analysis.

Sabahudin Vrtagic, Edis Softic, Mirza Ponjavić, Željko Stević, Marko Subotić, Aditya Gmanjunath, Jasmin Kevric

There are numerous algorithms and solutions for car or object detection as humanity is aiming towards the smart city solutions. Most solutions are based on counting, speed detection, traffic accidents and vehicle classification. The mentioned solutions are mostly based on high-quality videos, wide angles camera view, vehicles in motion, and are optimized for good visibility conditions intervals. A novelty of the proposed algorithm and solution is more accurate digital data extraction from video file sources generated by security cameras in Bosnia and Herzegovina from M18 roadway, but not limited only to that particular source. From the video file sources, data regarding number of vehicles, speed, traveling direction, and time intervals for the region of interest will be collected. Since finding contours approach is effective only on objects that are mobile, and because the application of this approach on traffic junctions did not yield desired results, a more specific approach of classification using a combination of Histogram of Oriented Gradients (HOG) and Support Vector Machines (Linear SVM) has shown to be more appropriate as the original source data can be used for training where the main benefit is the preservation of local second-order interactions, providing tolerance to local geometric misalignment and ability to work with small data samples. The features of the objects within a frame are extracted first by standardizing the feature variables and then computing the first order gradients of the frame. In the next stage, an encoding that remains robust to small changes while being sensitive to local frame content is produced. Finally, the HOG descriptors are generated and normalized again. In this way the channel histogram and spatial vector becomes the feature vector for the Linear SVM classifier. With the following parameters and setup system accuracy was around 85 to 95%. In the next phase, after cleaning protocols on collected data parameters, data will be used to research asphalt deformation effects.

Mirza Ponjavić, Almir Karabegović, H. Čustović, J. Hivziefendic

ABSTRACT The Online Biomass Potential Atlas is a tool primarily intended for geo-visualisation of biomass data from the Biomass Potential Monitoring System in Bosnia and Herzegovina. However, its role does not have to end here. By developing a functional extension, it can offer an environment for the location analysis of potential biomass users and sources of unused biomass potential. This paper describes an approach for developing tool with such functionality, based on spatial interaction modelling. Determining the optimal location for biogas plants in the region covered by the administrative units of two cantons in Bosnia and Herzegovina is considered as a case study. Based on the analysis conducted in the case study, the feasibility of applying this tool has been demonstrated.

S. Stanojević, Mirza Ponjavić, Slobodan Stanojević, Aleksandar Stevanovic, S. Radojicic

As a response to the pandemic caused by SARSCov-2 virus, on 15 March, 2020, the Republic of Serbia introduced comprehensive anti-epidemic measures to curb COVID 19. After a slowdown in the epidemic, on 6 May, 2020, the regulatory authorities decided to relax the implemented measures. However, the epidemiological situation soon worsened again. As of 15 October, 2020, a total of 35,454 cases of SARSCov-2 infection have been reported in Serbia, including 770 deaths caused by COVID19. In order to better understand the epidemic dynamics and predict possible outcomes, we have developed a mathematical model SEIRDS (S-susceptible, E-exposed, I-infected, R-recovered, D-dead due to COVID19 infection, S-susceptible). When developing the model, we took into account the differences between different population strata, which can impact the disease dynamics and outcome. The model can be used to simulate various scenarios of the implemented intervention measures and calculate possible epidemic outcomes, including the necessary hospital capacities. Considering promising results regarding the development of a vaccine against COVID19, the model is enabled to simulate vaccination among different population strata. The findings from various simulation scenarios have shown that, with implementation of strict measures of contact reduction, it is possible to control COVID19 and reduce number of deaths. The findings also show that limiting effective contacts within the most susceptible population strata merits a special attention. However, the findings also show that the disease has a potential to remain in the population for a long time, likely with a seasonal pattern. If a vaccine, with efficacy equal or higher than 65%, becomes available it could help to significantly slow down or completely stop circulation of the virus in human population. The effects of vaccination depend primarily on: 1. Efficacy of available vaccine(s), 2. Prioritization of the population categories for vaccination, and 3. Overall vaccination coverage of the population, assuming that the vaccine(s) develop solid immunity in vaccinated individuals. With expected basic reproduction number of Ro=2.46 and vaccine efficacy of 68%, an 87%- coverage would be sufficient to stop the virus circulation.

Between March 5 and July 25, 2020, the total number of SARS-CoV-2 confirmed cases in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BH) was 10 090 corresponding to a cumulative incidence rate of 285.7 per 100 000 population. Demographic and clinical information on all the cases along with exposure and contact information was collected using a standardized case report form. In suspected SARS-CoV-2 cases, respiratory specimens were collected and tested by real-time reverse-transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (rRT-PCR) assay. The dynamic of the outbreak was summarized using epidemiological curves, instantaneous reproduction number Rt and interactive choropleth maps for geographical distribution and spread. The rate of hospitalization was 14.0% (790/5646) in Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina (FBH) and 6.2% (267/4299) in Republic of Srpska (RS). The death rate was 2.2% (122/5646) in FBH and 3.6% in the RS (155/4299). After the authorities lifted mandatory quarantine restrictions, the basic reproduction number increased from 1.13 on May, the 20th to 1.72 on May the 31st. The outbreak concerns both entities, Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina and Republika Srpska, and it is more pronounced in those aged 20-44 years. It is important to develop the communication and emergency plan for the SARS-CoV-2 outbreak in BH, including the mechanisms to allow the ongoing notification and updates at the national level.

M. Hukić, Mirza Ponjavić

At the end of 2019 the world became aware of the existence of a new virus stemming from the Coronaviridae family and causing a specific disease – COVID-19. In less than three months, the virus and its consequences, developed from being a local public health problem in China to a daunting global problem we all had to face. On March 11, 2020 the World Health Organization (WHO) declared a pandemic of COVID-19. On the international scale, even in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH), the response of the professionals and scientists has been rapid, although not always consistently efficient enough. Despite the selfless cooperation of scientists and practitioners worldwide, countries with developed economies, good public health and a strong scientific system have had the advantage in the fight against the disease over developing countries. Despite the fact that by these criteria BiH is not one of the most resilient countries, so far, its response to the pandemic has seemed to be satisfactory. The Academy of Sciences and Arts of Bosnia and Herzegovina (ANUBiH) was one of the first institutions of the science system to respond to the pandemic. On the initiative and under the leadership of academician Mirsada Hukić, on March 22, 2020 the development of the project "Epidemic Location Intelligence System (ELIS)" and its Geoportal began on a voluntary basis, with the task of permanently monitoring the spread of COVID-19. Theoretical and professional parts of the project in the areas of medicine, public health and informatics were completed by April 2, 2020. Thanks to the support to the project by the Chairman of the Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina, Mr. Šefik Džaferović, the expert system received additional hardware support and was filled in time with data from across the country. This enabled the system to become operational as early as on April 8, 2020. The results of all these efforts are visible in this publication. Initially, the ELIS project was important for the epidemiological and public health area. The abundance of collected data and obtained virus samples enabled the extension of the project idea to the sequencing of viruses found in BiH and their typology. The transition of research to the clinical aspects of COVID-19 is the next phase in the development of the ELIS project. ANUBiH has already started the work on examining the economic and pedagogical consequences of COVID-19 in order to look at this medical phenomenon in the broadest possible context. All the results of ANUBiH in response to the epidemic challenges of COVID-19 are achieved due to the synergistic action of numerous individuals and institutions in different fields of science and public health in cooperation with government. Therefore, I believe that the ELIS project has shown the way to go in solving the burning problems of our society which we will encounter in the future.

Mirza Ponjavić, Almir Karabegović, E. Ferhatbegovic, Emin Tahirović, S. Uzunović, M. Travar, A. Pilav, Maida Mulić et al.

Aim The damage caused by the COVID-19 pandemic has made the prevention of its further spread at the top of the list of priorities of many governments and state institutions responsible for health and civil protection around the world. This prevention implies an effective system of epidemiological surveillance and the application of timely and effective control measures. This research focuses on the application of techniques for modelling and geovisualization of epidemic data with the aim of simple and fast communication of analytical results via geoportal. Methods The paper describes the approach applied through the project of establishing the epidemiological location-intelligence system for monitoring the effectiveness of control measures in preventing the spread of COVID-19 in Bosnia and Herzegovina. Results Epidemic data were processed and the results related to spatio-temporal analysis of the infection spread were presented by compartmental epidemic model, reproduction number R, epi-curve diagrams as well as choropleth maps for different levels of administrative units. Geovisualization of epidemic data enabled the release of numerous information from described models and indicators, providing easier visual communication of the spread of the disease and better recognition of its trend. Conclusion The approach involves the simultaneous application of epidemic models and epidemic data geovisualization, which allows a simple and rapid evaluation of the epidemic situation and the effects of control measures. This contributes to more informative decision-making related to control measures by suggesting their selective application at the local level.

This paper shows how to integrate data from enterprise database with spatial data, publish them together to online interactive map, and enable public users to perform analysis in simple web interface. The fact, that this is a public site, where users are not known in advanced and not trained, calls for importance of usability and intuitive user interface design. Also, system administrators are not willing to invest a lot of time in learning the basics of a system, and data providers need effective geoportals to enable access to spatial data and services via the Internet. All these needs should be reconciled during the implementation of the solution. Due to increasing interest of forestry and agricultural organizations in spatial data infrastructure (SDI) development and public users' needs for biomass data web presentation and analysis in Bosnia and Herzegovina, as case study is used the project of Biomass Potential Database with Online Atlas development. Additionally, here is proposed application of the geoportal using online atlas as spatial decision support tool.

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