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Publikacije (49)

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S. Avdic, I. Dzananovic, Suad Kunosic, Damir Demirovic, Amir Tokić

This paper deals with a time series of blackout events of the power transmission system in the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina (FB&H) in the period 2015–2023 and probability distributions that best fit these empirical data. The present study focuses on the global behaviour and dynamics of time series, ignoring the details of particular failures. We compiled the first comprehensive blackouts database in FB&H including the relevant information on each blackout feature. Most existing investigations concentrate on large-scale transmission systems, with limited evidence available for smaller and more compact grids. This study contributes new insight by investigating whether the heavy-tailed scaling observed in large systems also emerges in the FB&H transmission network. The power-law behaviour of the transmission network failure events in the FB&H power grid depending on their severity was identified. The estimated power-law exponent α is not merely a descriptive parameter but also reflects the underlying vulnerability of the system, making comparisons across countries valuable for assessing resilience and risk in transmission networks of different sizes and configurations. The results of this study show that the time intervals between the blackout events follow the exponential distribution. The data available from the FB&H power grid transmission centres in the observed period indicate that the frequency of all the blackout events in FB&H is not decreasing. It was determined that the blackout probability increases substantially during the morning hours, while the number of blackout events increases during the early summer and mid-fall months. However, the correlation analysis results show that there is only a weak, statistically insignificant correlation between blackout size and restoration time. The results for the FB&H power system, which relies predominantly on thermal power plants, indicate that despite differences in system scale and in the structure of electricity production compared with most EU power systems, no significant deviations are observed in blackout size behaviour when described by a power-law model. The results of this study provide a set of unique and valuable insights to operators and decision makers for the safe operation of the FB&H power system. The broader scope of applications of the results obtained includes the connection of the FB&H power system to power distribution across the Balkans for transfers and trading.

The original serial implementation of the segmentation algorithm exhibits suboptimal performance, motivating a systematic optimization effort without compromising accuracy.

This study deals with the unfolded quantities based on the time intervals between successive neutron events from the aspect of the power law. Neutrons from spontaneous fission in special nuclear material induce fission in most cases. In this study, it was demonstrated that the inverse value of the number of induced neutrons decreases following a power function with the increasing radius of a plutonium metal sphere. In addition, it was considered an increase in the neutron background level with increasing altitudes. The inverse value of the mean neutron counting rate depending on altitudes can be described with a power function merely for higher elevations. A linear relationship was obtained by plotting the quantities on logarithmic axes against each other indicating generally a power law relationship for both investigated phenomena. The results of this study showed a connection between two seemingly unrelated neutron phenomena through power laws based on the distributions of time intervals between successive neutron counts. The empirical evidence implies that a connection between the observed quantities in a log-log plot is unchanged except for a multiplicative constant.

D. Mihailović, S. Avdic, Anja Mihailovic

Abstract This paper deals with the first analysis of the neutron and gamma time series measured with organic scintillators from plutonium samples by using information measures. Fast neutron detection with organic scintillators has been widely used for various nuclear safeguards applications and homeland security. One of the significant attributes of special nuclear materials (SNM) is the high multiplicity events in a short period of time. The time distributions of neutron and gamma-rays events for the plutonium metal plates designed as fuel plates for the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) Zero Power were measured with the Fast Neutron Multiplicity Counter (FNMC) consisting of 8 EJ-309 liquid scintillators and 8 stilbene detectors. Since the neutron correlated counts within the coincidence window of 40 ns are related to 240Pu effective mass of plutonium metal plates, it is of interest to investigate the randomness of the measured neutron and gamma-rays events. To access such information, we resort to complexity measures in the hope of being able to connect complexity values with the reliability of detection. That was done through (i) application of Kolmogorov complexity (KC) and its derivatives [Kolmogorov spectrum and its highest value (KCM) and running complexity (RKC)] and (ii) establishing the “breaking point” after which there exists a sharp drop in the running Kolmogorov complexity of the neutron and gamma-rays time series. It was found that the complexity of all the time series detected from the sample with 5, 9, 11, 13, and 15 plutonium plates had the high almost identical values of KC while the sample with 3 plates had by one-third smaller KC values than all the others. These calculations were supplemented by the Lypaunov exponents for a time series and the NIST tests. The low KC values can be addressed to the different sources of uncertainties in measuring procedure with the sample consisting of three plates. The complexity measures applied in this study are capable of revealing aspects of information that would otherwise remain hidden to the one-off complexity estimate.

Systematic monitoring of environmental radionuclides with the aim of early warning in emergency situations in Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina (FB&H) was established in 2004. Environmental radiation monitoring network includes six automatic monitoring stations over the FB&H territory. This paper deals with the first study of ambient dose equivalent rates collected over the period of 2012-2017 with the main objective to investigate the temporal and spatial variations in the outdoor background radiation. The correlation analysis between the continuously acquired gamma dose rates and the simultaneous meteorological records on a daily basis contributed to a better interpretation of daily variations of the measured data. Derivation of the net ambient dose equivalent rates and the terrestrial radiation component from routine monitoring data was carried out as a prerequisite for adequate monitoring of background radiation. In addition, the terrestrial background component was estimated from the soil radionuclides at the same monitoring sites. The correlation analysis in a form of bivariation statistics between activity concentration of each pair of primordial radionuclides in the soil samples show that primordial radionuclides are not uniformly distributed over the FB&H territory. The mean values with the combined standard uncertainties for the terrestrial component evaluated from the soil radionuclides of (74.4 ± 12.5) nSv/h and from routine monitoring data of (81.8 ± 17.9) nSv/h are within the ranges reported for East and South European countries. The sources of statistical and systematic uncertainties were analyzed. The applied procedure of the terrestrial radiation component evaluation based on the daily monitoring data could be of complementary significance related to the existing evaluation procedures with a smaller sampling time of monitoring records. The results of the present study indicate that the acquired monitoring data are reliable enough to correctly assess the radiological situation in FB&H. In case of an emergency situation, the results obtained could be useful for a better identification of contaminated area.

The main objective of this study was to investigate the correlation between the indoor and outdoor ambient dose equivalent rates measured by the ion chamber inside and around the historical sacral objects at a few locations in Bosnia and Herzegovina. The investigated objects made of the traditional building materials were built in the Late Medieval, Post Medieval, and Ottoman Period of Bosnia and Herzegovina history. The LUDLUM Model 9DP instrument based on a pressurized ion chamber was selected for natural low level radiation measurements since the ionisation chambers have higher sensitivities than the other types of detectors. The detection capability of the LUDLUM Model 9DP pressurized ion chamber was examined in the laboratory conditions with a source of low activity and under natural environmental radiation conditions by measuring the indoor and outdoor dose rates. A weak positive correlation was found between the ambient dose equivalent rates inside the historical sacral objects and the dose rates outside the objects. The average evaluated value of the indoor to outdoor dose rate ratio of 1.07 for the studied historic objects is less than that obtained for the contemporary building materials such as concrete. No study on the indoor to outdoor dose rate ratio in Bosnia and Herzegovina measured by the LUDLUM 9DP dose rate meter based on an ion chamber has been conducted yet. In addition to direct measurements, the first gamma spectrometric analysis of a few samples of building materials from the Late Medieval period in Bosna and Herzegovina was performed. The results of the gamma analysis revealed almost uniform distribution of primordial radionuclides in the investigated samples. It was demonstrated that such materials had the reduced content of radioactive isotopes compared to the contemporary building materials and therefore they could have potential advantages in specific applications related to the environmentally sustainable architecture.

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