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Senada Avdic

Društvene mreže:

S. Avdic, I. Dzananovic, Suad Kunosic, Damir Demirovic, Amir Tokić

This paper deals with a time series of blackout events of the power transmission system in the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina (FB&H) in the period 2015–2023 and probability distributions that best fit these empirical data. The present study focuses on the global behaviour and dynamics of time series, ignoring the details of particular failures. We compiled the first comprehensive blackouts database in FB&H including the relevant information on each blackout feature. Most existing investigations concentrate on large-scale transmission systems, with limited evidence available for smaller and more compact grids. This study contributes new insight by investigating whether the heavy-tailed scaling observed in large systems also emerges in the FB&H transmission network. The power-law behaviour of the transmission network failure events in the FB&H power grid depending on their severity was identified. The estimated power-law exponent α is not merely a descriptive parameter but also reflects the underlying vulnerability of the system, making comparisons across countries valuable for assessing resilience and risk in transmission networks of different sizes and configurations. The results of this study show that the time intervals between the blackout events follow the exponential distribution. The data available from the FB&H power grid transmission centres in the observed period indicate that the frequency of all the blackout events in FB&H is not decreasing. It was determined that the blackout probability increases substantially during the morning hours, while the number of blackout events increases during the early summer and mid-fall months. However, the correlation analysis results show that there is only a weak, statistically insignificant correlation between blackout size and restoration time. The results for the FB&H power system, which relies predominantly on thermal power plants, indicate that despite differences in system scale and in the structure of electricity production compared with most EU power systems, no significant deviations are observed in blackout size behaviour when described by a power-law model. The results of this study provide a set of unique and valuable insights to operators and decision makers for the safe operation of the FB&H power system. The broader scope of applications of the results obtained includes the connection of the FB&H power system to power distribution across the Balkans for transfers and trading.

The original serial implementation of the segmentation algorithm exhibits suboptimal performance, motivating a systematic optimization effort without compromising accuracy.

This study deals with the unfolded quantities based on the time intervals between successive neutron events from the aspect of the power law. Neutrons from spontaneous fission in special nuclear material induce fission in most cases. In this study, it was demonstrated that the inverse value of the number of induced neutrons decreases following a power function with the increasing radius of a plutonium metal sphere. In addition, it was considered an increase in the neutron background level with increasing altitudes. The inverse value of the mean neutron counting rate depending on altitudes can be described with a power function merely for higher elevations. A linear relationship was obtained by plotting the quantities on logarithmic axes against each other indicating generally a power law relationship for both investigated phenomena. The results of this study showed a connection between two seemingly unrelated neutron phenomena through power laws based on the distributions of time intervals between successive neutron counts. The empirical evidence implies that a connection between the observed quantities in a log-log plot is unchanged except for a multiplicative constant.

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