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Avina Vongpradith, R. Dominguez, Lorainne Tudor Car, Amanda Movo, Samuel M. Ostroff, Jiawei He, Samuel B. Albertson, A. Carter et al.

BACKGROUND Enteric infectious diseases claim more than 1 million lives annually and are among the top ten causes of death in children younger than 5 years. Remarkable global investment has been dedicated to enteric infectious disease prevention and control; however, the shifting global health landscape is testing the continuance of progress. To evaluate the current status and guide future interventions, we present the latest epidemiological estimates of enteric infectious diseases from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2023 and assess progress towards the Global Action Plan for the Prevention and Control of Pneumonia and Diarrhoea (GAPPD) mortality target of fewer than 20 deaths per 100 000 children younger than 5 years by 2025. METHODS We quantified the incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) of enteric infectious diseases by age, sex, and year across 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2023. In GBD 2023, the following were considered under the category of enteric infectious diseases: diarrhoeal diseases, enteric fever (typhoid and paratyphoid), invasive non-typhoidal Salmonella spp (iNTS) infections, and other intestinal infectious diseases. We also examined 15 aetiologies contributing to diarrhoeal diseases. Incidence and prevalence were estimated with DisMod-MR (version 2.1), a Bayesian meta-regression tool, drawing on data from systematic reviews, population-based surveys, claims data, and hospital sources. Cause-specific mortality was modelled with Cause of Death Ensemble Modelling based on data from sources including vital registration, mortality surveillance, verbal autopsy, and minimally invasive tissue sampling. Years of life lost and years lived with disability were computed and combined to derive DALYs. For aetiology-specific estimation, population-attributable fractions (PAFs) for 15 pathogens were derived with a counterfactual framework. Point estimates and 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated from 250 draws from the posterior distribution. FINDINGS In 2023, enteric infectious diseases resulted in an estimated 1·27 million (95% UI 0·963-1·68) deaths globally, declining from 3·69 million (3·04-4·56) in 1990. The global age-standardised mortality rate (ASMR) decreased from 74·1 (62·0-92·9) per 100 000 population to 16·4 (12·6-21·3) per 100 000 population during the same period. Diarrhoeal diseases accounted for most deaths in 2023 (1·11 million [0·811-1·54]), followed by enteric fever and iNTS. South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa remained the most affected regions in 2023, with 599 000 (441 000-882 000) and 501 000 (373 000-648 000) deaths due to enteric infectious diseases, respectively, predominantly from diarrhoeal disease. Rotavirus was the leading cause of all-age diarrhoeal disease deaths (PAF 16·3% [12·0-21·5]), followed by norovirus (10·2% [2·4-17·0]) and Shigella spp (9·3% [5·4-15·2]). Among children younger than 5 years, PAFs of deaths due to diarrhoeal diseases were 40·2% (32·5-48·5) for rotavirus, 24·0% (15·1-36·7) for Shigella spp, and 23·4% (13·7-34·3) for adenovirus. Across 204 countries and territories, 141 met the GAPPD mortality target in 2023. The driving aetiologies among countries that did not meet the target in 2023 varied slightly by GBD super-region, but the highest or second-highest number of deaths in children younger than 5 years were consistently attributed to rotavirus. Astrovirus and sapovirus, newly included in GBD 2023, were responsible for 24 600 (6290-49 000) and 18 800 (4650-44 400) deaths, respectively, in 2023, mainly in children younger than 5 years. INTERPRETATION Our findings show that mortality and ASMRs of enteric infectious diseases declined substantially between 1990 and 2023. This decline is consistent with the expansion of public health measures and broader socioeconomic development. However, the burden in 2023 remains considerably high, with the highest mortality concentrated in sub-Saharan Africa and south Asia. Considering that more than a quarter of all countries had yet to meet the GAPPD mortality target in 2023, sustained efforts are needed to address the persistent burden in affected countries and to adapt to the changing global health landscape. FUNDING Gates Foundation.

Primary hypothermia arises from prolonged exposure to low environmental temperatures without underlying pathology, whereas secondary hypothermia is triggered by impaired thermoregulation due to factors such as disease, trauma, or substance use. This study aimed to investigate core temperature changes in rats exposed to specific water temperatures over time, with a focus on differentiating primary and secondary hypothermia induced by alcohol and benzodiazepines.Survival analysis was performed using Kaplan–Meier survival curves to compare the time to event (in minutes) among three experimental groups: Control, ethanol, and Diazepam. Core temperatures were recorded at five key points: baseline (normal temperature), post-ketamine anesthesia, during immersion, at hypothermia onset, and at the time of death. Survival times were also recorded and statistically analyzed. Median survival times were highest in the control group (35 minutes), followed by Diazepam (29 minutes) and ethanol (28 minutes). Pairwise comparisons using the log-rank test, adjusted for multiple comparisons via the Benjamini-Hochberg method, revealed a statistically significant difference between the control and diazepam groups (p = 0.018), with the control group demonstrating longer survival time. A significant interaction between Diazepam and time was observed (β = -0.23, 95% CI: -0.35 to -0.12, p < 0.001), indicating that the rate of temperature decline over time was significantly greater in the Diazepam group compared to the control group. Our results indicate that Diazepam accelerates the decrease in body temperature over time, which may contribute to its observed effect on survival, and that Diazepam administration is associated with a significant reduction in survival time compared with untreated controls. Ethanol did not significantly alter the measured thermoregulatory or survival outcomes in this pilot study. Any potential forensic relevance of ethanol-induced hypothermia remains speculative and requires further investigation in larger, adequately powered studies. Our results could have potential forensic implications in differentiating between primary and drug-induced as secondary hypothermia in medico-legal investigations.

Emina Dervišević, Zurifa Ajanović, M. Katica, L. Dervišević, Yanko Kolev, F. Licitra, Margherita Neri, A. Montana

Climate change significantly affects human physiology and contributes to increased morbidity and mortality, with heat stress representing one of the most severe consequences of thermal imbalance. The aim of this study was to analyze morphological changes to leukocytes on the peripheral blood smears of Wistar rats exposed to hyperthermia using the geometric morphometrics method. A total of forty Wistar albino rats were divided into three experimental groups according to water temperature exposure (37 °C, 41 °C, and 44 °C). Peripheral blood smears were prepared, stained, and digitally recorded using Motic Images Plus 2.0 software, after which selected images were analyzed using geometric morphometric programs (tpsDig, tpsUtil, and MorphoJ) to evaluate leukocyte shape variations. Comparative analysis demonstrated statistically significant morphological changes in polymorphonuclear cell shapes between the control group (37 °C) and rats exposed to 41 °C (p = 0.009). Significant differences were also identified in mononuclear cell morphology between the antemortem and postmortem groups (p = 0.00307). The findings indicate that exposure to elevated temperatures induces measurable alterations in white blood cell morphology, confirming that hyperthermia produces significant structural changes in polymorphonuclear cells and mononuclear cells detectable through geometric morphometric analysis.

F. Sessa, Clelia Grippaldi, M. Esposito, Carlos A. Gutierrez, Emina Dervišević, Efehan Ulaş, Federica Ministeri, Lucio Di Mauro et al.

Background/Objectives: Accurate post-mortem interval (PMI) estimation becomes increasingly difficult when bodies decompose under extreme heat. Hyperthermal Mediterranean environments accelerate soft-tissue degradation, induce early mummification, and distort classical thanatological indicators, often resulting in substantial PMI overestimation. This study analyzes three forensic cases affected by climate-driven decomposition anomalies and presents a climate-adaptive, AI-assisted diagnostic framework applied uniformly across all cases to improve PMI interpretation. Methods: A retrospective case series analysis was conducted on three individuals recovered during summer heatwaves. Crime scene investigation, post-mortem computed tomography (PMCT), autopsy, and genetic identification were integrated with 5–15-year meteorological datasets. Classical PMI estimations were compared with circumstantial data. A multimodal AI model, incorporating environmental features, decomposition morphology, and microenvironmental modifiers, was operationalized for each case using a hybrid Random Forest–LSTM architecture. Engineered indices included Accumulated Degree Days (ADD), a Decomposition Index, and climate-stress metrics (Thermal Load Index, Desiccation Pressure Factor, Microenvironmental Distortion Coefficient). Quantile regression provided calibrated prediction intervals. Results: Morphological assessments overestimated PMI in every case, suggesting intervals of 1–6 months despite true PMIs of approximately 20 days (Cases 1–2) or 36–48 h (Case 3). The AI model yielded conceptual outputs more consistent with verified PMIs, ~21 days (Case 1), ~23 days (Case 2), and ~42 h (Case 3), each accompanied by 50% and 90% prediction intervals. Explainability analyses identified thermal load, desiccation pressure, and microenvironmental distortion, particularly insulation in Case 3, as dominant drivers. Conclusions: Extreme heat fundamentally alters decomposition trajectories, rendering classical PMI methods unreliable. Applying a climate-aware, AI-assisted diagnostic framework across all three cases improved interpretability, providing uncertainty-aware estimates aligned with true PMIs. The AI framework is presented as a conceptual, non-trained, proof-of-concept system, and reported outputs represent operational demonstrations rather than validated predictions, offering a promising foundation for next-generation PMI diagnostics in hyperthermal forensic settings.

D. Santomauro, P. Miller, Jamileh Shadid, Sarah Wulf Hanson, A. Vo, D. J. Roy, Hailey Hagins, A. M. Mantilla Herrera et al.

BACKGROUND The 2023 iteration of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) estimated prevalence, incidence, and health burden for 375 diseases and injuries, including 12 mental disorders. We assess past, current, and emerging trends in the prevalence and burden of mental disorders across sexes and age groups, for 21 regions, 204 countries and territories, and by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile, from 1990 to 2023. METHODS Mental disorders included in GBD 2023 were anxiety disorders, major depressive disorder, dysthymia, bipolar disorder, schizophrenia, autism spectrum disorders, conduct disorder, attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder, anorexia nervosa, bulimia nervosa, idiopathic developmental intellectual disability, and a residual category of other mental disorders. A literature review identified epidemiological data for each disorder. These were analysed via a Bayesian meta-regression to estimate prevalence by disorder, sex, age, location, and year. Disorder-specific prevalence was multiplied by disability weights representing the severity of health loss associated with each disorder to estimate years lived with disability (YLDs). Deaths due to anorexia nervosa were assessed with a Cause of Death Ensemble modelling strategy to estimate deaths by sex, age, location, and year, and then multiplied by the standard life expectancy at age of death to estimate years of life lost (YLLs). YLDs equalled disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for all mental disorders except anorexia nervosa (the only mental disorder considered as an underlying cause of death in GBD), for which DALYs represented the sum of YLDs and YLLs. We presented prevalence, deaths, YLDs, YLLs, and DALYs as counts, age-specific rates per 100 000 population, and age-standardised rates per 100 000 population. FINDINGS We estimated 1·17 billion (95% uncertainty interval 1·06-1·31) prevalent cases of mental disorders globally in 2023, equivalent to an age-standardised prevalence rate of 14 210·7 cases (12 849·5-15 940·1) per 100 000 population. These estimates represented a 95·5% (75·0-121·2) increase in prevalent cases and 24·2% (11·4-41·4) increase in age-standardised prevalence rate between 1990 and 2023. All mental disorders showed increases in prevalent cases between 1990 and 2023, while notable increases were seen in age-standardised prevalence rates for anxiety disorders, major depressive disorder, dysthymia, anorexia nervosa, bulimia nervosa, schizophrenia, and conduct disorder. There were an estimated 171 million (127-228) DALYs due to mental disorders globally across sex and age in 2023, equivalent to an age-standardised DALY rate of 2070·5 DALYs (1519·1-2750·5) per 100 000 population. Mental disorders contributed to 6·1% (4·8-7·6) of all-cause DALYs in 2023, making them the fifth leading cause of global DALYs (up from 12th in 1990). DALYs were almost entirely composed of YLDs. Mental disorders were the leading cause of YLDs in 2023 (up from second in 1990), explaining 17·3% (14·8-20·6) of all-cause global YLDs. Leading causes of mental disorder DALYs were anxiety disorders (ranked 11th among the 304 diseases and injuries at Level 4 of the GBD cause hierarchy), major depressive disorder (15th), and schizophrenia (41st). Globally in 2023, mental disorder age-standardised DALY rates were higher among females (2239·6 [1643·7-3014·1] per 100 000) than among males (1900·2 [1399·8-2510·8] per 100 000), and peaked in the 15-19 years age group (2617·3 [1850·6-3696·8] per 100 000). All locations showed increased mental disorder DALY rates in 2023 compared with 1990, ranging across countries and territories from 1302·4 (952·7-1683·7) per 100 000 in Viet Nam to 3555·8 (2661·9-4715·0) per 100 000 in the Netherlands. Across SDI quintiles, DALY rates ranged from 1853·0 (1352·1-2469·3) per 100 000 for middle SDI to 2184·1 (1606·1-2890·3) per 100 000 for high SDI. INTERPRETATION A significant health burden was imposed by mental disorders in all countries and territories in 2023, irrespective of the health resources available. In some instances, this burden has increased over time and is unevenly distributed across populations. Stronger surveillance systems, particularly in low-income and middle-income countries, are required. Additionally, we need more coordinated and inclusive policies to reduce the burden through early treatment and prevention, tailored to sex and age differences across locations. Responding to the mental health needs of our global population, especially those most vulnerable, is an obligation, not a choice. FUNDING Gates Foundation, Queensland Health, and University of Queensland.

Harisa Hibić Kaknjašević, Emina Dervišević, Almir Fajkić, Azra Hodžić, A. Chupin, E. Sher

Chronic inflammatory diseases and autoimmune diseases are overlapping but distinct immune-mediated disorders that represent a growing worldwide health concern, characterised by persistent inflammation, tissue damage, and progressive organ dysfunction. In the United States alone, more than $180 billion is spent annually on managing these conditions, yet fewer than 10% of patients achieve long-term remission. These figures highlight the limitations of conventional therapies, which often control symptoms rather than adequately modify the underlying disease process. This review provides a focused and comparative overview of emerging therapeutic strategies across representative immune-mediated disorders, with particular emphasis on mesenchymal stem cells, Janus kinase-signal transducer and activator of transcription (JAK-STAT) inhibitors, chimeric antigen receptor T-cell therapies, therapeutic vaccines, microbiome-modulating interventions, and nanotechnology-based drug delivery systems. In parallel, artificial intelligence (AI) is increasingly contributing to biomarker discovery, drug repurposing, and treatment stratification, thereby supporting the development of predictive and personalised medicine. Overall, these advances support a shift toward mechanism-based, multimodal, and more durable treatment strategies, although further clinical validation remains necessary.

M. Concato, Maximo Leonardo Franzoni, Tijana Petrović, Ana Galić, Viktorija Belakaposka Srpanova, Emina Dervišević, Chara Spiliopoulou, Stefano D’Errico

Abusive head trauma (AHT), is considered a leading cause of fatalities resulting from physical abuse in infants under 2 years of age, with a peak incidence between 1 and 2 months after birth. The incidence of AHT ranges from 14 to approximately 40 cases per 100,000 children in industrialized countries with a mortality rate ranging from 10 to 20%. The absence of internationally recognized best practices or guidelines especially in the field of forensic medicine has resulted in methodological variability in the management of these cases across different settings. In response to this gap, a comparative working group involving experts from Italy and the Balkan countries was established, leading to the creation of a shared discussion platform. The aim of this collaborative effort was to identify strengths and critical issues in the forensic handling of abusive head trauma, ultimately with the goal of developing a shared workflow chart for the management of these complex cases within the network.

Haris Duljević, Amina Zorlak-Čavčić, V. Mišanović, Emina Duljević, Fahrudin Husić, Mustafa Omanović, Emina Dervišević

Acute abdominal pain (AAP) constitutes a frequent presenting complaint in the emergency department (ED). Distinguishing between mild and potentially life-threatening cases requires a structured approach and effective triage. This study aimed to describe the main nontraumatic causes of AAP, assess urgency, and analyze case distribution by age and gender, as well as admission and discharge patterns. All records of adult patients presenting with abdominal pain between August and December 2023 were retrospectively analyzed. The entire patient sample ( n = 257) was classified into 15 different diagnostic groups. From the total count of patients, n = 257, there were 154 females (59.92%) and 103 males (40.08%). According to our study, the leading cause of AAP was renal colic ( n = 67; 26.07%), followed by nonspecific abdominal pain (NSAP) ( n = 48, 18.68%), urinary tract infections (UTIs) ( n = 38, 14.79%), and biliary colic and cholecystitis ( n = 32, 12.45%). In terms of hospitalization, 195 patients (75.88%) were discharged, and 62 patients (24.12%) were admitted. Logistic regression analysis revealed that the likelihood of hospitalization was approximately twofold higher in males (odds ratio [OR] = 2.03), whereas females exhibited a reduced probability (OR = 0.49). A higher proportion of AAP cases was observed among females in our ED sample, with renal colic, NSAP, UTI, and biliary disorders being the most common diagnoses. A high discharge rate (75.9%) reflects that most AAP cases were non-emergent; however, careful triage remains essential, particularly in male patients due to their higher admission risk.

Sarah Brooke Sirota, Rose G. Bender, R. Dominguez, Avina Vongpradith, Amanda Movo, Lucien R. Swetschinski, Daniel T Araki, Chieh Han et al.

BACKGROUND Meningitis remains the leading infectious cause of neurological disabilities globally, disproportionately affecting children younger than 5 years and populations in the African meningitis belt. Whereas previous global estimates focused on ten pathogen categories, this study presents the most comprehensive analysis to date, assessing the meningitis burden attributable to 17 causative pathogens based on the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2023 framework. METHODS GBD is a systematic, scientific effort aimed at quantifying the comparative magnitude of health loss caused by diseases, injuries, and risk factors across age groups, sexes, and geographical locations over time. We estimated meningitis mortality using the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) and morbidity using DisMod-MR 2.1, incorporating data from vital registration, verbal autopsy, surveillance, hospital data, and systematic reviews. Aetiology-specific estimates were generated with pathogen-linked case-fatality ratios and splined binomial regression models. Risk factor attribution was based on established risk-outcome pairs and population attributable fractions. FINDINGS In 2023, there were 259 000 (95% uncertainty interval 202 000-335 000) global deaths and 2·54 million (2·20-2·93) incident cases of meningitis. Children younger than 5 years accounted for more than a third of deaths (86 600 [53 300-149 000]). Streptococcus pneumoniae, Neisseria meningitidis, non-polio enteroviruses, and other viruses were the leading causes of death, while non-polio enteroviruses caused the most cases. The four WHO-defined preventable meningitis pathogens of interest (S pneumoniae, N meningitidis, Haemophilus influenzae, and Group B streptococcus) contributed to 98 700 deaths (77 000-127 000) and 594 000 cases (514 000-686 000). Low birthweight, short gestation, and household air pollution were the top risk factors for meningitis-related mortality. INTERPRETATION Although mortality and incidence have declined significantly since 1990, progress is insufficient to meet WHO 2030 targets. Despite marked progress in reducing bacterial meningitis via global vaccination campaigns, a substantial meningitis burden persists, attributable both to common pathogens such as S pneumoniae and N meningitidis and to emerging non-bacterial pathogens such as Candida spp and drug-resistant fungi. Achieving WHO goals will require sustained investment in surveillance, vaccination, maternal screening, and health-system strengthening, especially in high-burden settings. FUNDING Gates Foundation, Wellcome Trust, and UK Department of Health and Social Care.

F. Krupić, Melissa Krupić, S. Sahra, Emina Dervišević, Nail Seffo, J. Alić

Immigrant populations frequently encounter barriers when accessing healthcare services, potentially affecting patient safety, healthcare utilization, and clinical outcomes. Understanding these barriers is essential for improving equitable and patient-centered care. A systematic review of qualitative and quantitative studies was conducted in accordance with PRISMA 2020 guidelines. PubMed/MedLINE, Embase, Cochrane Library, PsycINFO, EconLit, Web of Science (WoS), and CINAHL were searched from January 2005 to August 2023. Inductive thematic analysis was used to synthesize findings across studies. The review was not prospectively registered, included only English-language studies, and relied predominantly on qualitative evidence. Heterogeneity across study designs and healthcare settings may limit generalizability. The authors received no external funding for this study. Three interconnected themes consistently emerged: limited transcultural competence, language barriers, and discrimination in healthcare. Inadequate cultural competence was associated with communication difficulties and reduced care effectiveness. Language barriers contributed to miscommunication, delayed care, and increased healthcare utilization. Experiences of discrimination were linked to reduced trust in healthcare systems and poorer patient engagement. These factors negatively influenced patient safety, satisfaction, and clinical outcomes. Immigrant patients face persistent and interrelated barriers to healthcare access. Strengthening culturally responsive care, improving access to professional interpreter services, and addressing discriminatory practices are essential to improving patient safety, satisfaction, and clinical outcomes. Future research should evaluate targeted interventions aimed at improving communication, cultural competence, and healthcare equity.

Jiseung Kang, H. Kim, Min Seo Kim, Jae Hasan Yohannes Habtegiorgis Nasir Mohammadreza Sam Il Shin Aalruz Abate Abbas Abbasian ElHafeez Abdel, J. Il Shin, Hasan Aalruz, Y. Abate, Nasir Abbas et al.

F. Sessa, Emina Dervišević, M. Esposito, Martina Francaviglia, M. Chisari, C. Pomara, M. Salerno

Background/Objectives: Forensic DNA phenotyping (FDP) enables the prediction of externally visible characteristics (EVCs) such as eye, hair, and skin color, ancestry, and age from biological traces. However, low template DNA (LT-DNA), often derived from degraded or trace samples, poses significant challenges due to allelic dropout, contamination, and incomplete profiles. This review evaluates recent advances in FDP from LT-DNA, focusing on the integration of machine learning (ML) models to improve predictive accuracy and operational readiness, while addressing ethical and population-related considerations. Methods: A comprehensive literature review was conducted on FDP and ML applications in forensic genomics. Key areas examined include SNP-based trait modeling, genotype imputation, epigenetic age estimation, and probabilistic inference. Comparative performance of ML algorithms (Random Forests, Support Vector Machines, Gradient Boosting, and deep learning) was assessed using datasets such as the 1000 Genomes Project, UK Biobank, and forensic casework samples. Ethical frameworks and validation standards were also analyzed. Results: ML approaches significantly enhance phenotype prediction from LT-DNA, achieving AUC > 0.9 for eye color and improving SNP recovery by up to 15% through imputation. Tools like HIrisPlex-S and VISAGE panels remain robust for eye and hair color, with moderate accuracy for skin tone and emerging capabilities for age and facial morphology. Limitations persist in admixed populations and traits with polygenic complexity. Interpretability and bias mitigation remain critical for forensic admissibility. Conclusions: L integration strengthens FDP from LT-DNA, offering valuable investigative leads in challenging scenarios. Future directions include multi-omics integration, portable sequencing platforms, inclusive reference datasets, and explainable AI to ensure accuracy, transparency, and ethical compliance in forensic applications.

Sarah Brooke Sirota, Rose G. Bender, R. Dominguez, Amanda Movo, Lucien R. Swetschinski, Daniel T Araki, Chieh Han, Eve E Wool et al.

BACKGROUND Lower respiratory infections (LRIs) remain the world's leading infectious cause of death. This analysis from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2023 provides global, regional, and national estimates of LRI incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), with attribution to 26 pathogens, including 11 newly modelled pathogens, across 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2023. With new data and revised modelling techniques, these estimates serve as an update and expansion to GBD 2021. Through these estimates, we also aimed to assess progress towards the 2025 Global Action Plan for the Prevention and Control of Pneumonia and Diarrhoea (GAPPD) target for pneumonia mortality in children younger than 5 years. METHODS Mortality from LRIs, defined as physician-diagnosed pneumonia or bronchiolitis, was estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model with data from vital registration, verbal autopsy, surveillance, and minimally invasive tissue sampling. The Bayesian meta-regression tool DisMod-MR 2.1 was used to model overall morbidity due to LRIs. DALYs were calculated as the sum of years of life lost (YLLs) and years lived with disability (YLDs) for all locations, years, age groups, and sexes. We modelled pathogen-specific case-fatality ratios (CFRs) for each age group and location using splined binomial regression to create internally consistent estimates of incidence and mortality proportions attributable to viral, fungal, parasitic, and bacterial pathogens. Progress was assessed towards the GAPPD target of less than three deaths from pneumonia per 1000 livebirths, which is roughly equivalent to a mortality rate of less than 60 deaths per 100 000 children younger than 5 years. FINDINGS In 2023, LRIs were responsible for 2·50 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 2·24-2·81) deaths and 98·7 million (87·7-112) DALYs, with children younger than 5 years and adults aged 70 years and older carrying the highest burden. LRI mortality in children younger than 5 years fell by 33·4% (10·4-47·4) since 2010, with a global mortality rate of 94·8 (75·6-116·4) per 100 000 person-years in 2023. Among adults aged 70 years and older, the burden remained substantial with only marginal declines since 2010. A mortality rate of less than 60 deaths per 100 000 for children younger than 5 years was met by 129 of the 204 modelled countries in 2023. At a super-regional level, sub-Saharan Africa had an aggregate mortality rate in children younger than 5 years (hereafter referred to as under-5 mortality rate) furthest from the GAPPD target. Streptococcus pneumoniae continued to account for the largest number of LRI deaths globally (634 000 [95% UI 565 000-721 000] deaths or 25·3% [24·5-26·1] of all LRI deaths), followed by Staphylococcus aureus (271 000 [243 000-298 000] deaths or 10·9% [10·3-11·3]), and Klebsiella pneumoniae (228 000 [204 000-261 000] deaths or 9·1% [8·8-9·5]). Among pathogens newly modelled in this study, non-tuberculous mycobacteria (responsible for 177 000 [95% UI 155 000-201 000] deaths) and Aspergillus spp (responsible for 67 800 [59 900-75 900] deaths) emerged as important contributors. Altogether, the 11 newly modelled pathogens accounted for approximately 22% of LRI deaths. INTERPRETATION This comprehensive analysis underscores both the gains achieved through vaccination and the challenges that remain in controlling the LRI burden globally. Furthermore, it demonstrates persistent disparities in disease burden, with the highest mortality rates concentrated in countries in sub-Saharan Africa. Globally, as well as in these high-burden locations, the under-5 LRI mortality rate remains well above the GAPPD target. Progress towards this target requires equitable access to vaccines and preventive therapies-including newer interventions such as respiratory syncytial virus monoclonal antibodies-and health systems capable of early diagnosis and treatment. Expanding surveillance of emerging pathogens, strengthening adult immunisation programmes, and combating vaccine hesitancy are also crucial. As the global population ages, the dual challenge of sustaining gains in child survival while addressing the rising vulnerability in older adults will shape future pneumonia control strategies. FUNDING Gates Foundation.

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