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In this study, using the methods of spatial autocorrelation in geographic information systems (GIS), an analysis of the spatial distribution of mortality rates in Bosnia and Herzegovina was performed in order to identify high-risk areas with increased mortality and depopulation. Spatial analysis is based on the calculation of global (Global Moran’s I and Getis-Ord General G) and local (Anselin Local Moran’s I and Getis-Ord Gi*) statistical indices of spatial autocorrelation. The values of global statistical indices confirmed a clustering of high mortality values, while local statistical indices confirmed high mortality rates in the municipalities of northwestern and eastern Bosnia and Herzegovina. Conducted research provides an insight into spatial patterns of demographic processes, while results obtained by this research are significant for demographic development and future spatial demographic research in Bosnia and Herzegovina.

The aim of this research is to analyze the spatial distribution of the population ageing in Bosnia and Herzegovina and identify areas of the country that are particularly vulnerable to negative demographic trends. To achieve the goal of the study, data on the ageing coefficient and ageing index for the period 2013-2020 were used. The geospatial analysis of these indicators was performed using global (Global Moran's I and Getis-Ord General G) and local (Anselin Local Moran's I and Getis-Ord G*) indexes of spatial autocorrelation. The research results confirmed the clustering of both indicators. Ageing coefficient values are clustered in municipalities in western, northwestern, Eastern, and central Bosnia and Herzegovina. Ageing index values are clustered in municipalities in central, western, northwestern, and northeastern Bosnia and Herzegovina. This study provides insight into the research methods of spatial demographic trends and phenomena, and its findings can serve as a basis for future demographic research and development in Bosnia and Herzegovina.

Alma Kadušić, Sabahudin Smajić, D. Pavić, V. Stojanović

The focus of this study is a spatial analysis of the industry distribution and concentration, on the example of municipality of Tesanj (Bosnia and Herzegovina), based on the application of GIS methods. Municipality of Tesanj is one of the most developed municipalities in Bosnia and Herzegovina, while Tesanj?s industry significantly contributes to the economic development of this country. GIS analysis of industry was based on the field work, locating and georeferencing industrial companies, acquisition, adaptation, adjustment and validation of digital surface models and google satellite imagery, mapping of relief, hydrography and transport network. With the aim of geovisualization of spatial distribution of industry, spatial descriptive statistics and non-parametric density estimation analysis (Kernel Density Estimation) were performed. In order to determine the distribution of industry in relation to relief (elevation, slope, and aspect), hydrography and transport network, GIS techniques of reclassification, vectorization, count point in polygons, buffer and clip geoprocessing tools were used. Conducted research provided a new insight into the data mining and visualization based on principles of QGIS, the effects of geographic factors on industry distribution, and confirmed the importance of relief, hydrographic and transport network on the concentration of industry in municipality Tesanj.

Alma Kadušić, N. Smajic

The beginning of the 21st century in the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina (henceforth referred to as ?the Federation?) has been characterised by a decrease in the primary-school-age population. As such, the main objective of this work is to define and explain the factors that have influenced the decrease in the primary-school-age population in this part of Bosnia and Herzegovina. The research methodology applied in this work is oriented towards defining the degree of influence of demographic factors on the development of the primary-school-age population in the Federation. By using statistical methods and GIS analysis of statistical data, negative demographic trends were confirmed in the Federation at the end of the 20th and the beginning of the 21st century. These trends included intensive migration, a decrease in the total number of inhabitants, a decrease in the birth rate, an increased mortality rate, a decreased rate of natural population change, and the ageing of the population. Due to adverse economic, social, political, and other circumstances after 1995, population emigration has been intensified, most noticeably within the population aged between 20 and 40. The most important result of the research is the fact that the decrease in the natural population dynamics and intensive emigration are the most significant factors influencing the decrease in the primary-school-age population in the Federation. Such negative demographic trends influence the primary education system adversely. In the future, it will be necessary to plan and implement a population-revitalisation process as part of the federation?s overall population policy.

The war during the period 1992-1995 has caused massive forced migrations of the population in Bosnia and Herzegovina and in this period about 1.2 million people fled beyond the borders of Bosnia and Herzegovina while about 1 million were displaced inside the country. After the Dayton Peace Agreement, there started the process of return of refugees and displaced persons in Bosnia and Herzegovina. However, even after more than 20 years since the signing of the Agreement a significant number of refugees and displaced persons has not returned to their pre-war places of residence. This paper explores the number and the change in the status of the internally displaced Bosniaks of Srebrenica Municipality in the period 2005-2015, those who were residing in Tuzla Canton of the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina. According to the Federal Ministry of Refugees and Displaced Persons in Tuzla Canton, in 2005, the status of internally displaced persons had 2016 households with a total of 5549 members, and by 2015 this status has kept 1099 households with a total of 2867 members. The aim of this paper is to point out to some more significant factors that led to a reduction in the number of Bosniaks from the area of Srebrenica municipality who had the status of internally displaced persons in Tuzla Canton.

Alma Kadušić, Alija Suljić, N. Smajic

In this paper the age structure and the ageing population process in Bosnia and Herzegovina in the second half of the 20th century and the beginning of the 21st century is analyzed. The main reasons that caused changes in the age composition of the population and the population ageing in Bosnia and Herzegovina have been researched. The main causes of the population ageing in Bosnia and Herzegovina in the second half of the 20th century were primarily trends in fertility rates and secondarily trends in mortality rates. The economic growth of Bosnia and Herzegovina after World War II conditioned changes in the economic and educational structure of the population and with that the changes in the natural increase rates and migration balance. The war was the main cause of negative demographic changes in Bosnia and Herzegovina in the period from 1992 to 1995, and the post-war adverse socioeconomic, political and other circumstances have been the cause of negative demographic trends after 1995. The aim of this paper is to determine the level of population ageing in Bosnia and Herzegovina and the consequences this process could have on the demographic future of this country.

In the second half of the 20th century, demographic changes of the Tesanj municipality developed in accordance with the complex socioeconomic circumstances in this area. In the period from 1953 to 1991 the population of Tesanj municipality increased by the average annual population growth rate of 1.5%. The biggest impact on demographic trends had the positive and relatively high rates of natural increase. The natural population change of Tesanj municipality in this period was the result of the effect of biological, socioeconomic, psychological and other factors. In this period fertility significantly influenced the rates of natural increase of municipal population. The gradual decline process of the fertility rates, which has started in the 1960s and still lasts, reflected on the natural population change and population growth rates of Tesanj population. Additional decrease of the fertility and birth rates, as well as moderate increase of mortality rate was observed. This occurred due to the decrease of the total population, as well as the adverse socioeconomic circumstances after 1995, which resulted in low natural growth rates.

Bosnia and Herzegovina is known as migratory dynamic state. Causes for this migration are mainly of political and economical nature. Intensity of migration through Bosnia and Herzegovina in second half of the 19th century and throughout 20th century was cicely intensifying at almost regular time intervals and was caused mainly with political, but also with economical factors. This paper is intended to examine migration streaming in Bosnia and Herzegovina in the last decade of 20th and the beginning of the 21st century. It examines the forced migration generated by war that was raging in the state in the period of 1992-1995, as well as the post-war migration caused by economical and political factors, but it also examines the return of displaced people to their homes after the war ending. By using all available domestic and foreign written sources in this field, authors will give consideration to entire series of questions that are intruding into these issues. Analysis of the consequences of former migration flows and probability of their reduction, that is, defining the vision of the state in these new conditions, certainly dominates this paper among all other things.

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