The impacts of climate change are affecting human societies today. In parallel, socio-economic development has increased the capacity of countries around the global to adapt to those impacts although substantial challenges remain. Ongoing climate change will continue to result in a pressure to adapt, while socio-economic development could make it easier to do so. Countries’ effectiveness in fostering climate resilience will depend on the pace of both developments under different socio-economic and emission pathways. Here we assess trajectories of adaptation readiness in comparison with the continued emergence of hot days as a proxy for climate change hazards for different emission and socio-economic pathways over the 21st century. Putting the future evolution of both indices in relation to the observed dynamics over the recent past allows us to provide an assessment of the prospects of future climate resilience building beyond what has been experienced to date. We show that only an inclusive and sustainable stringent mitigation pathway allows for effective climate resilient development over the 21st century. Less inclusive or fossil-fuel driven development will not allow for improvements in resilience building beyond the recent past. Substantial differences emerge already in the 2020s. Our findings underscore the paramount importance of achieving the Paris Agreement goals to enable climate-resilient, sustainable development.

With the emergence of a global climate youth movement, questions of intergenerational justice regarding climate change mitigation have come to the fore. However, a scientific perspective on intergenerational climate impacts is still lacking. Here we show that newborns in 2020 are projected to experience 2–7 times more extreme events globally under current climate pledges than someone born in 1960, using a novel framework that quantifies impacts as they are experienced along a person’s lifetime. Limiting warming to 1.5 ◦ C consistently reduces that burden while still leaving younger generations with unavoidable impacts that are unmatched by those experienced by older generations. Our results provide a scientific basis to understand the position from which younger generations challenge the present shortfall of adequate climate action.

The extent to which societies will globally be able to adapt to climate change is not well understood. Here we analyze socioeconomic dimensions of adaptive capacity of populations to deal with heat stress and find income, urbanization and income inequality to be important factors in explaining adaptation to heat stress with air conditioning (AC). Using the scenario framework of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), we estimate the future cooling gap, which represents the difference between the population exposed to heat stress and the population able to protect against heat stress with AC. Depending on the scenario of socioeconomic development, total population affected by the cooling gap may vary between 2 billion and 5 billion people in 2050, with the scenario-dependent range widening further towards the end of the century. Our analysis shows vast regional inequalities in adaptive capacity for one of the most universal manifestations of climate change, underscoring the need to account for the different potential levels of adaptive capacity in assessments of climate change impacts.

A modest fraction of current global stimulus funds can put the world on track to achieve Paris Agreement goals Governments around the globe are responding to the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)–related economic crisis with unprecedented economic recovery packages (1), which at the time of writing surpassed USD 12 trillion. Several influential voices, including the United Nations (UN) secretary-general, heads of state, companies, investors, and central banks, have called for post–COVID-19 economic recovery efforts to be used to catalyze the necessary longer-term transformation toward a more sustainable and resilient society. Here we shine a light on the opportunity for these investments to support a green recovery by inventorying and classifying the latest information on governments' fiscal stimulus plans (1) and comparing the size of these measures to estimates of low-carbon energy investment needs compatible with the 2015 UN Paris Agreement. We show that low-carbon investments to put the world on an ambitious track toward net zero carbon dioxide emissions by mid-century are dwarfed by currently announced COVID-19 stimulus funds. But marked differences across countries and regions at differing stages of development emphasize the role that international support and global partnership must play to create conditions that enable a global climate-positive recovery.

Abstract. Current global mitigation ambition up to 2030 under the Paris Agreement, reflected in the National Determined Contributions (NDCs), is insufficient to achieve the agreement's 1.5  ∘ C long-term temperature limit. As governments are preparing new and updated NDCs for 2020, the question as to how much collective improvement is achieved is a pivotal one for the credibility of the international climate regime. The recent Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5  ∘ C by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has assessed a wide range of scenarios that achieve the 1.5  ∘ C limit. Those pathways are characterised by a substantial increase in near-term action and total greenhouse gas (GHG) emission levels about 50 % lower than what is implied by current NDCs. Here we assess the outcomes of different scenarios of NDC updating that fall short of achieving this 1.5  ∘ C benchmark. We find that incremental improvements in reduction targets, even if achieved globally, are insufficient to align collective ambition with the goals of the Paris Agreement. We provide estimates for global mean temperature increase by 2100 for different incremental NDC update scenarios and illustrate climate impacts under those median scenarios for extreme temperature, long-term sea-level rise and economic damages for the most vulnerable countries. Under the assumption of maintaining ambition as reflected in current NDCs up to 2100 and beyond, we project a reduction in the gross domestic product (GDP) in tropical countries of around 60 % compared to a no-climate-change scenario and median long-term sea-level rise of close to 2 m in 2300. About half of these impacts can be avoided by limiting warming to 1.5  ∘ C or below. Scenarios of more incremental NDC improvements do not lead to comparable reductions in climate impacts. An increase in aggregated NDC ambition of big emitters by 33 % in 2030 does not reduce presented climate impacts by more than about half compared to limiting warming to 1.5  ∘ C. Our results underscore that a transformational increase in 2030 ambition is required to achieve the goals of the Paris Agreement and avoid the worst impacts of climate change.

<p>Heat extremes are among the most pertinent extreme weather hazards. At the same time, adaptation to the impacts of extreme heat can be very effective. The ability of societies to effectively adapt to climate change hazards such as extreme heat, however, critically depends on their level of socio-economic development. Examining the risks posed by future heat extremes to human societies requires to link socio-economic development trajectories with emerging heat extremes. Such an integrated assessment can also provide insights into whether or not it is indeed plausible for societies to &#8220;outgrow&#8221; climate change by increasing adaptive capacity faster than climate impacts emerge - &#160;a narrative that underlies many policy decisions that prioritize economic development over climate action still today.</p><p>&#160;</p><p>Here we provide such an integrated assessment by combining a novel approach to project the continuous emergence of heat extremes over the 21^st century under different concentration pathways and the pace of socio-economic development under the shared socio-economic pathways accounting for continuous autonomous adaptation. We find that even under the most optimistic scenarios of future development, countries may not be able to outpace unmitigated climate change. Only Paris-Agreement compatible concentration pathways allow for human development to keep up with or even outpace the emerging climate change signal in vulnerable countries in the near future. A similar picture emerges when comparing heat day emergence with future evolution of governance as a proxy for adaptive capacity. Our findings underscore the critical importance of achieving the Paris Agreement goals to enable climate-resilient, sustainable development.</p>

<div> <div> <div> <p>The <em>global yield gap</em> is a concept to assess the difference between the actual yield and the maximum potential yield that could be achieved by applying optimal agricultural techniques such as irrigation. Climate change and socio-economic development, including population growth, call for addressing the yield gap to increase global production and to adapt to climate change as irrigation in many circumstances is a very effective adaptation measure. On the regional level, the irrigation yield gap can thus be interpreted as an indicator linked to adaptive capacity of the agricultural sector to climate change impacts. At the same time, effective deployment of irrigation is linked, among other things, to the socio-economic development including economic capabilities, but also institutional and water governance frameworks.</p> <p>Based on a detailed assessment of the irrigation yield gap, taking into account water availability constraints such as environmental flow requirements, we here establish as sustainable irrigation adaptation index for the agricultural sector. In a next step we link this sustainable irrigation index to socio-economic indicators provided by the framework of Socio- Economic Pathways (SSPs) on the national level. Doing so allows us to project the closure of the yield gap alongside the quantitative SSP narratives of socio-economic developments. We find that even under very optimistic scenarios of socio-economic development, it will take decades to close the irrigation yield gap in many developing countries, while without substantial development improvements our results suggest limited improvement in many tropical countries. Our projections present a first attempt to consistently link future irrigation expansion to socio-economic scenarios used in climate change research. We report a substantial scenario dependence of this expansion that underscores the need to incorporate socio-economic projections into projections of future agricultural impacts.</p> </div> </div> </div>

Geiges Andreas1, Paola Yanguas Parra1, Marina Andrijevic1,2, William Hare1, Alexander Nauels1, Peter Pfleiderer1,2,3, Michiel Schaeffer1,4, and Carl-Friedrich Schleussner1,2,3 1Climate Analytics, 10961 Berlin, Germany 2IRITHESys, Humboldt University, 10117 Berlin, Germany 3Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, 14473 Potsdam, Germany 4Department of Environmental Sciences, Wageningen University and Research Centre, 6700 AA Wageningen, The Netherlands

5 6 Weak governance is one of the key obstacles for sustainable development. Undoubtedly, improvement of 7 governance comes with a broad range of co-benefits including countries’ abilities to respond to pressing 8 global challenges such as climate change. However, beyond the qualitative acknowledgement of its 9 importance, quantifications of future pathways of governance are still lacking. This study provides 10 projections of future governance in line with the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs). We find that 11 under a “rocky road” scenario, 30% of the global population would still live in countries characterized by 12 weak governance in 2050, while under a “green road” scenario weak governance would almost be entirely 13 overcome over the same time frame. Based on pathways for governance, we estimate the adaptive capacity 14 of countries to climate change. Limits to adaptive capacity exist even under optimistic pathways beyond 15 mid-century. Our findings underscore the importance of accounting for governance in assessments of 16 climate change impacts. 17

Abstract. Current global mitigation ambition as under the Paris Agreement as reflected in the National Determined Contributions (NDCs) up to 2030 is insufficient to achieve the Agreement's 1.5 °C long term temperature limit. As governments are preparing new and updated NDCs for 2020, the question as to how much collective improvement is achieved is a pivotal one for the credibility of the international climate regime. The recent Special Report of the Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change on Global Warming of 1.5 °C has assessed a wide range of scenarios that achieve the 1.5 °C limit. Those pathways are characterized by a substantial increase in near-term action and total greenhouse gas (GHG) emission levels about 50 % lower than what is implied by current NDCs. Here we assess the outcomes of different scenarios of NDC updating that fall short of achieving this 1.5 °C benchmark. We find that incremental improvements in reduction targets even if achieved globally, are insufficient to align collective ambition with the goals of the Paris Agreement. We provide estimates for global mean temperature increase by 2100 for different incremental NDC update scenarios and illustrate climate impacts under those scenarios including for extreme temperature, long-term sea level rise and economic damages for the most vulnerable countries. Under the assumption of maintaining ambition as reflected in current NDCs up to 2100 and beyond, we project a reduction in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in tropical countries of about 50–60 % compared to a no-climate change scenario and long-term sea-level rise of close to 2 m in 2300. About half of these impacts can be avoided by limiting warming to 1.5 °C, or below. Scenarios of more incremental NDC improvements do not lead to comparable reductions in climate impacts. An increase in 2030 of the aggregated NDC ambition of big emitters by 33 % does not deliver more than about half the potential reduction in climate impacts compared to limiting warming to 1.5 °C. Our results underscore that a transformational increase in 2030 ambition is required to achieve the goals of the Paris Agreement and avoid the worst impacts of climate change.

This paper explores the demographic impact of intentional homicide and calculates the difference this expression of violence makes as a cause of death in terms of life expectancy in selected countries. It comprises of two parts. The first one provides a comprehensive review of the counts and rates of homicide across the world. The second one investigates the effect of this form of violence on life expectancy in selected countries where the situation with regard to this phenomenon is the worst for men and for women. The study approaches the trends and patterns of intentional homicide in the world, and sets the stage for a further research in this area to make the policy-making at the national, regional or global level more effective at preventing and reducing violence, and protecting people against the unlawful taking of life.