Governance in socio-economic pathways and its role for 1 future adaptive capacity
5 6 Weak governance is one of the key obstacles for sustainable development. Undoubtedly, improvement of 7 governance comes with a broad range of co-benefits including countries’ abilities to respond to pressing 8 global challenges such as climate change. However, beyond the qualitative acknowledgement of its 9 importance, quantifications of future pathways of governance are still lacking. This study provides 10 projections of future governance in line with the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs). We find that 11 under a “rocky road” scenario, 30% of the global population would still live in countries characterized by 12 weak governance in 2050, while under a “green road” scenario weak governance would almost be entirely 13 overcome over the same time frame. Based on pathways for governance, we estimate the adaptive capacity 14 of countries to climate change. Limits to adaptive capacity exist even under optimistic pathways beyond 15 mid-century. Our findings underscore the importance of accounting for governance in assessments of 16 climate change impacts. 17