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Almir Alihodžić, Herzegovina, Anna Zielińska-Chmielewska

This research includes all banks in Bosnia and Herzegovina and testing internal and external variables on bank profitability indicators. In addition, the profitability of banks in B&H is also influenced by the financial result of operations, which is determined by price and interest rate risk. The primary goal of this paper is to determine, through correlation and regression analysis, the strength and significance of external and internal variables on bank profitability in Bosnia and Herzegovina. The research period covered from 2008: q1 to 2019: q4 on a quarterly database. Also, in this paper, the STATA 13.0 software package will be used. The following dependents variable were used: return on asset (ROA) and return on equity (ROE). The following independent variables were used: the growth rate of net gross/loss (GRNGL), the growth rate of non-performing loans (GRNPL), GDP growth rate (GRGDP), concentration ratio of loans of the largest banks in the system (CR Loans), concentration ratio of deposits of the largest banks in the system (CR Deposits), capital adequacy ratio (CAR) and loan-to-deposit ratio. The total number of observations was 48. The results showed that the significant influence on the dependent variables were the return on equity (ROE) and return on asset (ROA), which has been achieved by the following independent variables, such as the growth rate of net gross/loss, the growth rate of non-performing loans and concentration ratio of loans and deposit of the largest banks.

Almir Alihodžić, İ. Halil, Berna Doğan

The phenomenon of financial stability has gained importance as monetary and fiscal policies aiming at price stability in the global crises are not sufficient to prevent financial crises. After 2007 global crisis, the importance of bank stability better understood. This paper investigates the determinant of bank stability in selected Balkan countries and Turkey. For this aim, we used to Z-score and NPL as dependent variables. We used bank performance, financial structure and macro variables as independent variables. According to ANOVA test and regression analysis, the strongest correlation between non-performing loans as the dependent variable of the Western and some EU Member countries (Bosnia and Herzegovina, Serbia, Croatia, Slovenia, Montenegro, Macedonia) and Turkey was achieved with the following independent variables: the total non-interest income to total income and foreign bank assets to total bank assets. Observed on the other hand, the weakest link between NPLs as a dependent variable was achieved with the following independent variables: the gross domestic product, the net interest margin ratio, Lerner index and the cost to income. Another dependent variable, i.e., Z-score was recorded the strongest correlation with the following independent variables in the model: the gross domestic product, the Lerner index, the net interest margin and the cost to income. The weakest link was achieved with the following independent variables: the total non-interest income to total income and the foreign bank assets to total assets.

U ovom radu fokusirali smo se na istraživanje odnosa između koncentrisanosti bankarskog sistema Bosne i Hercegovine i Srbije, te uticaj na zaposlenost/nezaposlenosti u obe posmatrane zemlje. Osnovni zadaci i ciljevi istraživanja se odnose na determinisanje uticaja internih faktora banaka na zaposlenost/nezaposlenost, te prepoznavanje efekata unutrašnjih faktora na stopu nezaposlenosti. Kao zavisnu varijablu u ovom istraživanju koristili smo stopu nezaposlenosti, dok su kao nezavisne varijable poslužile sledeće: HHI indeks koncentracije, stopa rasta ukupne bankarske aktive, stopa rasta likvidne aktive prema ukupnoj aktivi. U cilju proučavanja kointegracije varijabli korišćena je metoda automatske regresijske raspodele, kao i metoda korelacije i regresije. Period istraživanja obuhvata period od 2008q1 do 2018q4. Rezultati istraživanja su pokazali da najsignifikantniji značaj na smanjenje nezaposlenosti mogu imati sledeće nezavisne varijable: stopa rasta ukupnih kredita, stopa rasta bankarske aktive, koncentracija kredita i depozita (posebno slučaj banaka u BiH). S druge strane, preveliki obim likvidnih sredstava prema ukupnim sredstvima iznad zakonskog minimum može uticati negativno na privredni rast i zaposlenost.

Credit risk is the most important risk among all other risks in the banking business, because almost over 80% of bank balance sheets relate to this segment of banking risk management. One of the biggest problems of commercial banks in Bosnia and Herzegovina are non-performing loans whose share in total loans has increased significantly since the onset of the global financial crisis. The main objective of the research is to determine which of the macroeconomic variables have the strongest impact on the increase of return on average equity and whether it is possible to reduce the credit risk of banks with adequate legislation as the main factor in the slowdown in credit expansion. The main goal will be to divide the impact of an independent variable, i.e. the share of liquid assets in total assets and whether its increase indirectly affects the return on equity and indirectly, the credit risk. The quantitative model used in this study will be the Merton model. Testing will be conducted through multiple regression analysis for the period 2008-2016 with the help of the software package STATA.

Tržišta akcija su efikasna ako cene u bilo kojem momentu reflektuju sve javno dostupne informacije. Cene akcija bi trebalo da se prilagode u momentima kada investitori pokušavaju da iskoriste nove informacije koje nisu bile predmetom računovodstvenog evidentiranja. Osnovni cilj ovog rada je da se utvrdi da li zaista finansijski izveštaji odabrane skupine preduzeća koja kotiraju na Sarajevskoj i Banjalučkoj berzi predstavljaju dobru baznu osnovu i odraz tržišnih cena ili naprosto služe kao zakonska obaveza i zahtev regulatornih agencija. U radu će biti sprovedena regresiona analiza zavisne i nezavisnih varijabli za period od 2011. do 2015. godine. Kao zavisna varijabla će biti tretirana zatvarajuća cena trgovanja na berzama, dok će se kao nezavisne varijable koristiti sledeće: odnos tržišne cene i zarade (PE racio), zarada po akciji (EPS), neto dobit nakon oporezivanja (ND), ostvareni profit na akcijski kapital (ROE), odnos tržišne i knjigovodstvene vrednosti (PB), i ukupan promet na berzama (PR).

Almir Alihodžić, Novo Plakalović

Non-financial sector in B&H and the companies due to lack of its own funds for sustainable growth rely on financing its operations through bank loans. The dominant share of lending to banks in B&H is directed to the household sector while on the other hand the approval of bank loans to enterprises is on a smaller scale. Corporate sector due to underdeveloped capital markets is not able to borrow through the issuance of equity and debt securities. The main objective of this study is to determine which independent variables in the regression models have an impact on the amount of approved loans granted by banks to non-financial sector, i.e. companies. The loans growth rate will be observed as a dependent variable, and the growth rate of non-performing loans, the growth rate of operating costs, real GDP growth, consumer price index, deposit growth rate, deposit interest rate, interest rate (EURIBOR), and interest rate (LIBOR) will be used as independent variables.

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