The phenomenon of financial stability has gained importance as monetary and fiscal policies aiming at price stability in the global crises are not sufficient to prevent financial crises. After 2007 global crisis, the importance of bank stability better understood. This paper investigates the determinant of bank stability in selected Balkan countries and Turkey. For this aim, we used to Z-score and NPL as dependent variables. We used bank performance, financial structure and macro variables as independent variables. According to ANOVA test and regression analysis, the strongest correlation between non-performing loans as the dependent variable of the Western and some EU Member countries (Bosnia and Herzegovina, Serbia, Croatia, Slovenia, Montenegro, Macedonia) and Turkey was achieved with the following independent variables: the total non-interest income to total income and foreign bank assets to total bank assets. Observed on the other hand, the weakest link between NPLs as a dependent variable was achieved with the following independent variables: the gross domestic product, the net interest margin ratio, Lerner index and the cost to income. Another dependent variable, i.e., Z-score was recorded the strongest correlation with the following independent variables in the model: the gross domestic product, the Lerner index, the net interest margin and the cost to income. The weakest link was achieved with the following independent variables: the total non-interest income to total income and the foreign bank assets to total assets.

U ovom radu fokusirali smo se na istraživanje odnosa između koncentrisanosti bankarskog sistema Bosne i Hercegovine i Srbije, te uticaj na zaposlenost/nezaposlenosti u obe posmatrane zemlje. Osnovni zadaci i ciljevi istraživanja se odnose na determinisanje uticaja internih faktora banaka na zaposlenost/nezaposlenost, te prepoznavanje efekata unutrašnjih faktora na stopu nezaposlenosti. Kao zavisnu varijablu u ovom istraživanju koristili smo stopu nezaposlenosti, dok su kao nezavisne varijable poslužile sledeće: HHI indeks koncentracije, stopa rasta ukupne bankarske aktive, stopa rasta likvidne aktive prema ukupnoj aktivi. U cilju proučavanja kointegracije varijabli korišćena je metoda automatske regresijske raspodele, kao i metoda korelacije i regresije. Period istraživanja obuhvata period od 2008q1 do 2018q4. Rezultati istraživanja su pokazali da najsignifikantniji značaj na smanjenje nezaposlenosti mogu imati sledeće nezavisne varijable: stopa rasta ukupnih kredita, stopa rasta bankarske aktive, koncentracija kredita i depozita (posebno slučaj banaka u BiH). S druge strane, preveliki obim likvidnih sredstava prema ukupnim sredstvima iznad zakonskog minimum može uticati negativno na privredni rast i zaposlenost.

espanolDue to high inflation expectations, the National Bank of Serbia has chosen price stability as the primary objective of monetary policy and the key policy rate as the main instrument of monetary regulation. However, despite a clearly defined Taylor rule, the key policy rate does not always follow the movement of the rate of inflation. Accordingly, the aim of this study is to test the effects of inflation rate on the key policy rate and the possibility of using Taylor rule in the original conditions of low inflation. Based on the defined object of the research, we tested the following hypothesis: inflation rate had statistically significant impact on the key policy rate in the whole analyzed period, between 2007 and 2015. The same observation was tested for two sub-periods between 2007 and 2011 and between 2012 and 2015. Therefore, it can be concluded that there is statistically significant moderate impact of inflation rate on the key policy rate, but representativeness of the model could be higher. The lack of reaction of the key policy rate to inflation stresses the need for redefining monetary policy instruments and modifying the strategy of inflation targeting. EnglishDebido a las altas expectativas de inflacion, el Banco Nacional de Serbia ha elegido la estabilidad de precios como el objetivo principal de la politica monetaria y la tasa de politica clave como el principal instrumento de regulacion monetaria. Sin embargo, a pesar de la regla de Taylor claramente definida, la tasa de politica clave no siempre sigue el movimiento de la tasa de inflacion. En consecuencia, el objetivo de este estudio es evaluar los efectos de la tasa de inflacion en la tasa clave de politica y la posibilidad de utilizar la regla de Taylor en las condiciones originales de baja inflacion. Con base en el objeto definido de la investigacion, probamos la siguiente hipotesis: la tasa de inflacion tuvo un impacto estadisticamente significativo en la tasa de politica clave en todo el periodo analizado, entre 2007 y 2015. La misma observacion se probo para dos subperiodos entre 2007 y 2011 y entre 2012 y 2015. Por lo tanto, se puede concluir que existe un impacto medio estadisticamente significativo de la tasa de inflacion en la tasa de politica clave, pero la representatividad del modelo podria ser mayor. La falta de reaccion de la tasa clave de politica monetaria a la inflacion enfatiza la necesidad de redefinir los instrumentos de politica monetaria y modificar la estrategia de metas de inflacion.

Bank loans represent an essential source of financing for the real sector, especially in countries where the basic structure of the financial system consists of commercial banks. In the last few years, lending to small and medium-sized enterprises in Bosnia and Herzegovina has slowed down mainly due to the fact that banks do not trust enterprises, the lack of quality collateral, the poor financial performance of the company, bad bank placements and other factors. The banking system in Bosnia and Herzegovina was completely liberalized, which resulted in increased competition on one hand, and on the other hand, increased the concentration of foreign capital. The growth rate loan to the real sector will be used as the dependent variable while the growth rate of average salary, the growth rate liquidity assets according to total assets, the growth rate of EURIBOR, the growth rate of return on assets, the growth rate of capital adequacy ratio and growth rate deposit according to loans will be used as independent variables. In this paper, the STATA 13.0 software package will be used. This data analysis will include quarterly basis data for the period: 2007q1 – 2017q4 due to its higher significance. The basic results of the regression analysis also showed a positive relationship between the growth rate of loans to the real sector and a growth rate of salary, and the growth rate of EURIBOR. Similarly, there is a positive relation between the growth rate of loans to the real sector and the growth rate of return on an asset. In contrast, the weaker relationship was recorded with the following independent variables: the capital adequacy ratio and growth rate of liquidity asset to total assets. Keywords: Credit expansion, EURIBOR, deposits, real sector, variance inflation factor. JEL: G2, G20, G21.

In this paper, endogenous and exogenous factors that affect the credit growth rate of some Western Balkan countries (Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia and Serbia) and the credit policy in Turkey will be investigated through a multiple regression analysis. The credit growth rate will be used as the dependent variable while the rate of the non-performing loans along with the growth rate of the deposit, the return of equity and the real growth rate of the gross domestic product will be used as independent variables. In this paper the STATA 13.0 software package will be used. This data analysis will include a quarterly basis data for the period: 2007q1 – 2017q2 due to its higher significance. The result of the regression analysis showed that there is a reverse relationship between the rate of the non-performing loans and the credit growth rate for all the observed countries. The high share of problematic loans in total loans relatively reflects in a negative way the overall tendency of the banks towards taking risks and credit growth. It reduces the profitability of the banking sector and increases the systemic risk as well. The basic results of the regression analysis also showed a positive relationship between economic growth and the credit growth of banks. On the one hand, the economic growth of the region insufficiently follows the credit growth due to the stagnation of the real sector, and the recovery of the economy on the other hand. Similarly, there is a positive relationship between the growth rate of the deposits and credit growth, since the deposits sources are the basis for performing credit nomination. Except for Croatia where a negative correlation was recorded, there is a positive relationship in terms of the return on equity and credit growth.

In the last two years, the profitability of the banking sector of Serbia has indicated the occasional tendency to recovery. Viewed over the long term, profitability of the banking sector is primarily a function of an increase in lending activities with increased control in the field of credit risk because the credit risk is an essential problem of the banking sector in the Republic of Serbia, the region and individual EU countries. Unlike credit risk, liquidity risk is very insignificant. In this paper, through an approach that has been developed by Alberts, we will explore the correlation between return and risk for a larger group of banks in the Republic of Serbia. Therefore, the main objective of the paper is to determine whether factors such as the size of the bank, i.e. business operations, lending activities, the competitive environment and the style of management of the bank have an impact on the trade-off between return and risk. Keywords: Return on invested funds, capital risk, credit risk, financial leverage

Investment funds can be set up anywhere in the European Union if they meet the requirements in accordance with EU directives, i.e. UCITS which are theoretically free market in other EU countries. For further registration or free recognition process, it is necessary to meet the requirements of host countries. Here are the regulatory bodies selected group of countries in the context of the responsibility for the establishment of investment funds. The United States is the largest domestic market investment funds whose share at the end of 2013 years were about 45% market share. At the end of 2015, the share of investment funds in the total structure of the financial system in Bosnia and Herzegovina amounted to only 2.95%, which shows how undeveloped capital markets and low awareness in this business segment.

Credit risk is the most important risk among all other risks in the banking business, because almost over 80% of bank balance sheets relate to this segment of banking risk management. One of the biggest problems of commercial banks in Bosnia and Herzegovina are non-performing loans whose share in total loans has increased significantly since the onset of the global financial crisis. The main objective of the research is to determine which of the macroeconomic variables have the strongest impact on the increase of return on average equity and whether it is possible to reduce the credit risk of banks with adequate legislation as the main factor in the slowdown in credit expansion. The main goal will be to divide the impact of an independent variable, i.e. the share of liquid assets in total assets and whether its increase indirectly affects the return on equity and indirectly, the credit risk. The quantitative model used in this study will be the Merton model. Testing will be conducted through multiple regression analysis for the period 2008-2016 with the help of the software package STATA.

Tržišta akcija su efikasna ako cene u bilo kojem momentu reflektuju sve javno dostupne informacije. Cene akcija bi trebalo da se prilagode u momentima kada investitori pokušavaju da iskoriste nove informacije koje nisu bile predmetom računovodstvenog evidentiranja. Osnovni cilj ovog rada je da se utvrdi da li zaista finansijski izveštaji odabrane skupine preduzeća koja kotiraju na Sarajevskoj i Banjalučkoj berzi predstavljaju dobru baznu osnovu i odraz tržišnih cena ili naprosto služe kao zakonska obaveza i zahtev regulatornih agencija. U radu će biti sprovedena regresiona analiza zavisne i nezavisnih varijabli za period od 2011. do 2015. godine. Kao zavisna varijabla će biti tretirana zatvarajuća cena trgovanja na berzama, dok će se kao nezavisne varijable koristiti sledeće: odnos tržišne cene i zarade (PE racio), zarada po akciji (EPS), neto dobit nakon oporezivanja (ND), ostvareni profit na akcijski kapital (ROE), odnos tržišne i knjigovodstvene vrednosti (PB), i ukupan promet na berzama (PR).

Foreign trade indicators change in response to the global financial crisis and ultimately have a major impact on fiscal sustainability. Likewise, the increase in the budget deficit and public debt affects the growth of long-term and short-term interest rates, and the overall fiscal stability. The main objective of this paper is to review the impact of the global financial crisis on the tendency of the public debt in Bosnia and Herzegovina and various Western Balkans countries. Specifically, as the Maastricht criteria established a 60% of GDP debt limit, the paper will analyse the given limit, and the interdependence of imports in Bosnia and Herzegovina and the public debt of the general government sector by a simple regression analysis for the period 2008–2012. Thus, the regression model will be used to assess the dependence of the public debt of the Government of Bosnia and Herzegovina due to the increase of imports and exports of goods, as well as well as conditionality of export of goods and income. Keywords: Indicators of foreign trade, imports, exports, public debt

Non-financial sector in B&H and the companies due to lack of its own funds for sustainable growth rely on financing its operations through bank loans. The dominant share of lending to banks in B&H is directed to the household sector while on the other hand the approval of bank loans to enterprises is on a smaller scale. Corporate sector due to underdeveloped capital markets is not able to borrow through the issuance of equity and debt securities. The main objective of this study is to determine which independent variables in the regression models have an impact on the amount of approved loans granted by banks to non-financial sector, i.e. companies. The loans growth rate will be observed as a dependent variable, and the growth rate of non-performing loans, the growth rate of operating costs, real GDP growth, consumer price index, deposit growth rate, deposit interest rate, interest rate (EURIBOR), and interest rate (LIBOR) will be used as independent variables.

The purpose of this paper is to relate the Danish concept of the “Balance Principle” to test the hypotheses of systemic liquidity risk in the banking sector.  In the paper, the major econometric method is to gauge the general applicability of theories of liquidity and to test the applicable validity of Bosnia and Herzegovina (BH).  A prime example for this study is taken from the first quarter of 2004 to the second quarter of 2014. Our intention here is to consider the identification of macroeconomic parameters that positively affect the growth of the banking sector. The parameter liquidity, i.e. liquid assets / total assets will be observed as a dependent variable, and nonperforming loans / total loans, average profitability on equity capital, non-interest expenses / total revenue, the average required reserve, total loans, the money supply in the wider sense, net capital / risk weighted assets and net performing assets / total assets will be used as independent variables. The purpose of the paper is to determine whether there is interdependence in the movement between the independent and dependent variables through a multiple linear regression. Keywords: Systemic liquidity risk, Danish balance principle, ANOVA test, macroeconomic parameters

In this paper, the subject of analysis is influence of certain macroeconomic and microeconomic variables on bank  net interest margins in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BH) for the period from 2008 to 2013 through a multiple linear regression models. The level and dynamics of NIM indicate the efficiency of financial intermediation. The observed period is characterized by the reduction in net interest margins of banks over the previous decade, which was characterized by high GDP growth, bank loans and high-interest rates and high profitability. Therefore, this study examines the factors that affect the level of net interest margins in the domestic banking industry. The main objective of this paper is to determine whether there is interdependence in the movement between the independent and dependent variables through a multiple linear regression. The net interest margin will be observed as a dependent variable, and liquidity risk, operating costs, credit risk, the index of market concentration, funding risk, the growth rate of gross domestic product and consumer price index will be used as independent variables.