The role of inflation in creating the key policy rate – validation of Taylor's Rule in case of Serbia

espanolDue to high inflation expectations, the National Bank of Serbia has chosen price stability as the primary objective of monetary policy and the key policy rate as the main instrument of monetary regulation. However, despite a clearly defined Taylor rule, the key policy rate does not always follow the movement of the rate of inflation. Accordingly, the aim of this study is to test the effects of inflation rate on the key policy rate and the possibility of using Taylor rule in the original conditions of low inflation. Based on the defined object of the research, we tested the following hypothesis: inflation rate had statistically significant impact on the key policy rate in the whole analyzed period, between 2007 and 2015. The same observation was tested for two sub-periods between 2007 and 2011 and between 2012 and 2015. Therefore, it can be concluded that there is statistically significant moderate impact of inflation rate on the key policy rate, but representativeness of the model could be higher. The lack of reaction of the key policy rate to inflation stresses the need for redefining monetary policy instruments and modifying the strategy of inflation targeting. EnglishDebido a las altas expectativas de inflacion, el Banco Nacional de Serbia ha elegido la estabilidad de precios como el objetivo principal de la politica monetaria y la tasa de politica clave como el principal instrumento de regulacion monetaria. Sin embargo, a pesar de la regla de Taylor claramente definida, la tasa de politica clave no siempre sigue el movimiento de la tasa de inflacion. En consecuencia, el objetivo de este estudio es evaluar los efectos de la tasa de inflacion en la tasa clave de politica y la posibilidad de utilizar la regla de Taylor en las condiciones originales de baja inflacion. Con base en el objeto definido de la investigacion, probamos la siguiente hipotesis: la tasa de inflacion tuvo un impacto estadisticamente significativo en la tasa de politica clave en todo el periodo analizado, entre 2007 y 2015. La misma observacion se probo para dos subperiodos entre 2007 y 2011 y entre 2012 y 2015. Por lo tanto, se puede concluir que existe un impacto medio estadisticamente significativo de la tasa de inflacion en la tasa de politica clave, pero la representatividad del modelo podria ser mayor. La falta de reaccion de la tasa clave de politica monetaria a la inflacion enfatiza la necesidad de redefinir los instrumentos de politica monetaria y modificar la estrategia de metas de inflacion.