With its nominal GDP USD 177.3 billion in 2022, the Hungarian economy is roughly equivalent to the economies of Serbia, Croatia and Slovenia, combined. Yet, these three countries are among the five most important Bosnia and Herzegovina's (B&H) trading partners in exports and imports, while Hungary only ranks eighth among B&H's most significant trading partners. By applying the gravity model, it was found that the basic gravity model (which takes into account only the size of the economy and the distance) is insufficient to explain the volume of trade between Bosnia and Herzegovina and Hungary. Actually, the fact that Bosnia and Herzegovina was once a member state of the Former Yugoslavia still has a significant impact on explaining the international trade of Bosnia and Herzegovina, simultaneously indicating the importance of historical, cultural, and political ties between the countries. The results obtained in this research study pertaining to the ten most significant trading partners of Bosnia and Herzegovina also suggest that the distance between the major cities more strongly influences exports than imports. Taking into consideration the size of the Hungarian economy and the distance, these results suggest that the trade volume between Bosnia and Herzegovina and Hungary is far below the expected level.

The mobility of factors of production from the very beginnings of the theory of the optimal currency area (OCA) stands out as one of the primary mechanisms for achieving a balance of payments, i.e. sustainability of the monetary union (Mundell criterion). However, there is a significant qualitative difference between the monetary union of countries with similar income levels and the one with different development stages Namely, in the first case, labor mobility, as a rule, has short-term economic effects, while it has a longer-term (more negative) impact – especially on the long-run aggregate supply (LRAS). Many Eastern European countries, which expressed a desire to become part of European integration and the monetary union after the communist ruin, experienced this. In a previous paper, the authors set the thesis about “Impossible Trinity of Developing Countries”. In this paper, the aspiration is to confirm the validity of this theory by analyzing Greece within the period 1999-2020, specifically observing the impact of three variables (fiscal policy, social development level, and level of economic freedom) on the emigration of the population under conditions of monetary union and labor force mobility. The results obtained in this research indicate that the fiscal policy in the observed period was the most significant factor in explaining migration trends. The implications for developing countries that are currently entering (such as Croatia) or intend to enter the monetary union with more developed countries in the future are particularly significant.

ABSTRACT The research determines the gap (Great Decoupling) between labour productivity and workers’ compensation in the two blocks of EU countries (Western versus Eastern). The division of countries into two groups provides a basis further to determine whether the previous socio-economic and political evolutionary development of these countries blocks still has a significant impact on the functional distribution of national income, on the extent to which labour productivity growth is transmitted to workers. The results are heterogeneous. In the sample of highly developed Western EU countries where higher levels of labour productivity, as well as high levels of technological development, lead to an increase in labour productivity to be followed by a lower increase in workers’ compensation. On the sample of Eastern EU countries, results indicate different relationships and the strength of causality between productivity and labour compensation. Central-East EU countries had a more positive relationship between real workers’ compensation and labour productivity, compared to the Southeast Europe (Balkan) countries where an increase in workers’ compensation causes a reduction in labour productivity. The results also offer a solid basis for understanding wage/income/productivity relationships d for creating policies for a more efficient distribution of national income.

Background Cigarette use is one of the major risk factors for non-communicable diseases in Bosnia and Herzegovina, with 41.1% of adults being current smokers in 2019 and almost half of current smokers using more than 20 cigarettes per day. Methods This study applies the prevalence-based, cost-of-illness approach to estimate the annual economic cost of smoking in Bosnia and Herzegovina in 2019. Results The study estimates that cigarette use by adults in Bosnia and Herzegovina caused between 24.4% and 42.8% of all deaths in 2019 and a total economic cost of between €367.5 and €635.1 million (2.0%–3.5% of gross domestic product). The direct costs represent the largest share of the total cost (between 1.0% and 1.7% of gross domestic product). Conclusion Cigarette use imposes a significant health and economic burden in the society of Bosnia and Herzegovina. Various tobacco control measures can be implemented to prevent and reduce tobacco consumption and the negative health consequences of tobacco use. Numerous studies have shown taxes on tobacco products are very effective in reducing tobacco use, especially among certain demographic groups, such as youth and low-income individuals. Smoke-free laws have also shown benefits. Other policy measures that can be implemented include restrictions to advertising, limitations on who can purchase tobacco products, how and where they can be purchased, etc. In addition, governments could also implement various education programmes on the negative health consequences of smoking. The results of this study provide information that calls for prompt and strengthened implementation of tobacco control measures to reduce cigarette consumption in the country and improve the health outcomes and productivity of its inhabitants.

Abstract This paper investigated the opportunities for public sector improvement by digitalization Financial Management and Control (FMC) system in the Western Balkans (WB) countries. Optimizing business processes within public sector through the digitalization of the FMC system offers opportunities for public sector improvement. The idea is to analyze the existing legal solutions on FMC system in the WB countries and evaluate the current level of digitalization of the system to find the abilities for improvement FMC. The data obtained through an interview with management persons in the Ministry of Finance of the WB Countries and key experts who worked on behalf of the EU as expert consultants on EU-funded projects. Also, we use secondary data collected by exploring literature and OECD reports. Since the database is limited, we use descriptive statistics to analyze the data and the case-study method. The digitalization of the entire system presented only at the entity and state level in Bosnia and Herzegovina. The research showed that the development of a quality FMC system can be enabled by the digitalization of the entire system. The main contribution of this paper is its focus on digitalization of FMC system, since there is limited research paper on this subject.

Background Tobacco tax policy in Bosnia and Herzegovina (B&H) assumes a gradual annual increase in specific excise taxes on cigarettes. However, it is insufficient to reduce significantly consumption. This paper examines effects of the increase in cigarette prices and disposable income on cigarette demand in B&H by different income consumer groups. Methods Based on the Household Budget Surveys and microdata from 2007, 2011 and 2015, we employed logit model to estimate prevalence and Deaton’s model to estimate intensity elasticity of cigarette demand for the sample of 21 424 households (9953 are smoking households) by different income groups. We used obtained elasticities and estimated the impact of tax increase on cigarette consumption and government revenue in three tax increase scenarios. Results Ten per cent price increase would reduce the consumption of low-income households by 14%, as opposed to 9.9% for middle-income and 7% for high-income households. Low-income households would significantly increase the demand for cigarettes compared with high-income households if income increased. Increase in the specific excise tax by 25% would reduce cigarette consumption and increase government revenue, while the low-income group would experience a reduction in tax burden. Conclusions Changes in prices have different impacts on tobacco prevalence and consumption of low-income compared with middle-income and high-income socioeconomic groups. Low-income households are most responsive to changes in prices and income. Thus, the poor in B&H would benefit from an increase in tobacco excise taxes and price.

Background and objective Tobacco tax evasion undermines the goal of tobacco taxes as a tobacco control measure to make tobacco products less affordable, increases the health risks for those who smoke and decreases the government revenue. This paper analyses the tobacco tax evasion in six Western Balkan (WB) countries: Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, Montenegro, North Macedonia and Serbia. The aim of this research is to estimate the size of the illicit market and identify the main determinants of tax evasion activities in the Southeastern European region. Data and methods Data from 2019 Survey on Tobacco Consumption in Southeastern Europe (STC-SEE) are used. STC-SEE provides uniquely comparable nationally representative data on smoking behaviour for adult (18–85 years old) population for each country. Tax evasion is defined on the basis of available information on tax stamps, health warnings, price and the place of purchase, in accordance with the previous research on tax evasion. In order to estimate the determinants of illicit purchases we use binary choice model of tax evasion. Results The study finds that 20.4% of all current smokers in WB countries evade taxes on tobacco products, with evasion being much more frequent for hand-rolled (HR) tobacco (86.7%) than for the manufactured cigarettes (MC) (8.6%). While HR is predominantly illicit in all six countries, MC evasion varies significantly, with evasion being significantly higher in Montenegro and Bosnia and Herzegovina. Results further suggest that tax evasion is higher in the statistical regions where institutional capacities to tackle illicit trade are lower, in municipalities bordering countries with high MC evasion, as well as among smokers with low income, women and elderly. We also provide evidence that higher tobacco taxes and prices do not increase illicit consumption. Conclusion The findings from the research suggest that in order to decrease tax evasion, governments should put additional effort to strengthen institutional capacities to tackle illicit tobacco markets. Furthermore, improving regional coordination in development and implementation of tobacco control policies, including the prevention of illicit market, is essential in lowering evasion in all WB countries. Finally, WB countries should regulate and enforce excise tax stamp requirements on the HR tobacco market to a much higher degree.

Milton Friedman’s traditional claim is that flexible exchange rates facilitate external adjustment by means of their cor- rective movements before the balance of payments crisis occurs. In order to test this hypothesis, we employ the first order autoregression based on the panel data on exchange rate regime and external balance expressed as the share of balance of goods and services in GDP. The sample covers 16 Central and Eastern European (CEE) and 12 Common- wealth of Independent States (CIS) transition countries over the period 2000-2019. The results, which are based on the sample of all transition countries, failed to prove that more flexible exchange rate regimes facilitate external adjust- ment. When the analysis was performed on two groups of countries separately, the results showed that the deficit of balance of goods and services in CIS countries has a higher persistence compared to CEE countries. However, a more flexible exchange rate regime does not facilitate external ad- justment. On the other hand, in CEE countries, the relation- ship between exchange rate regime flexibility and the rate of balance of goods and services reversion exists, proving that Friedman’s hypothesis does hold.

Total Factor Productivity (TFP) is the portion of the country's output not explained by the amount of inputs used in production. The main goal of the present paper is to estimate the Total Factor Productivity levels and then determine the long-term impact of Economic freedom on the TFP in ten former socialistic countries, which are full EU members since 2000. To estimate the TFP we have applied the fixed effect panel on standard Cobb-Douglas production function in per capita terms. In the second iteration we have used PMG ARDL model to estimate the long-term impact of economic freedom on the TFP. This research has proven that higher level of economic freedom, which is used as a proxy of the quality of the institutions and institutional framework, caused higher level of total factor productivity in the period 2000-2018 in the case of ten former socialistic countries which are full EU members since 2000. The obtained results enable us an insight in policies which are important for efficiency increase and economic performance. Our finding could be very useful for policymakers, stressing which policies are contributing to efficiency, and which are not. So that policymakers could intervene in the way to increase the quality of institutional framework and economic institutions. Many other studies investigate the TFP and growth, or growth and institutional framework for the countries of Central and East Europe. Our survey is among the first to investigate the long-term impact of the institutional framework and economic institutions on the countries efficiency for this countries. Our survey enables us an insight into the mechanism through which the institutions can positively impact the TFP through increasing the predictability and reducing the uncertainty for CE countries.

ABSTRACT This paper outlines the roles of gross domestic spending on research and development (R&D) and gross capital formation in the innovation process and detects their contribution to this improvement. The analysis is conducted for Turkey for the period 1990-2017 using annual time-series data. Our findings suggest a bidirectional causal link between all variables of interest and prove that R&D can be a significant driving force for the Turkish innovation process. Most of the research and development activities in Turkey have been performed by universities. Herein, it is of key importance for the Turkish government to increase public expenditure, especially on education, since human capital plays an important role in building innovation capacity.

Background Bosnia and Herzegovina (B&H) is among the top 10 countries in the world in terms of number of smokers. The cigarette prices in B&H are under a direct impact of state excise tax policy. The specific excise on cigarettes was introduced in B&H in 2009. Since then it has been increasing every year thus being the main driver of cigarette prices growth. Methods In this paper we estimate price elasticity of demand for cigarettes following Deaton demand model and apply it on microdata obtained from the Household Budget Surveys in B&H conducted in 2011 and 2015. Deaton model uses within-cluster information to estimate total expenditure elasticities and then uses between-cluster information to estimate price elasticities. For B&H, the cluster is defined as a municipality × in the year t. Our sample contains 14 252 households, divided into 267 clusters. Results Our results show that the price elasticity is statistically significant and amounts to −1.366. This means that if cigarette prices in B&H are increased by 10%, the demand for cigarettes would decrease by 13.66%. Conclusions We found a negative price elasticity of demand for cigarettes of −1.366. These results of the econometric estimate of elasticity of demand are more elastic compared with the results of similar surveys carried out on the sample of low and middle-income countries. It demonstrates that the demand for cigarettes responds strongly to the price increase.

Tobacco consumption continues to be behavior engaged in by a large percentage of Bosnia & Herzegovina (BiH) citizens. According to the official statistics, nearly half of the state’s adults, that is about 1,200,600 people, consume tobacco products on a daily bases. The state excise policy is one of the main available tools for reducing smoking prevalence because cigarette prices are under the direct impact of this policy. The specific excise on cigarettes introduced in BiH in 2009 and has increased every year so it was the main driver of cigarette price growth. In order to provide research-based evidence for more effective tobacco taxation policies in BIH, in this paper we estimate the price elasticity of demand for cigarettes using the macro-level data for the period 2008 to 2017, on a semi-annual basis. The results have shown that the increase in prices of cigarettes has a statistically significant impact on cigarette consumption, at a significance level of 1%. The estimated price elasticity coefficient is in the range from -0.71 to -0.83, depends on the selected control variables used in the model. It means that the increase in real cigarette prices for 10% led to a decrease in cigarette consumption in the range from 7.1% to 8.3%.

Abstract The economic authorities of each country seek to maintain the expansion phase through the implementation of various economic policy measures, namely, to prevent or mitigate the recessionary phase in economic development. In that context, it is of considerable importance to understand how monetary policy decisions affect the movement of macroeconomic variables. The paper aims to examine and evaluate the contribution of monetary policy to mitigating the effects of the global economic and financial crisis, using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag model, by analysing the impact of the real exchange rate, reference interest rate and money supply on the level of economic activity in Poland. Econometric analysis encompasses the period from 2006 to 2017. The research results suggest that there is a significant relationship between real economic activity and the real exchange rate both in the short and long term, but not between the reference interest rate and the money supply.

Tobacco consumption continues to be behavior engaged in by a large percentage of Bosnia&Herzegovina (BiH) citizens. According to the official statistics, nearly half of the state’s adults, that is about 1,200,600 people, consume tobacco product on a daily bases. The state excise policy is one of the main available tool for reducing smoking prevalence because the cigarette prices are under direct impact of this policy. The specific excise on cigarettes introduced in BiH in 2009 and have increased every year so it was the main driver of cigarettes price growth. In order to provide research-based evidence for more effective tobacco taxation policies in BIH, in this paper we estimate price elasticity of demand for cigarettes using the macro level data for the period 2008 to 2017, on a semi-annual basis. The results have shown that increase in prices of cigarettes have statistically significant impact on cigarettes consumption, at significance level of 1%. The estimated price elasticity coefficient is in the range from -0.71 to -0.83, depends on the selected control variables used in the model. It means that increase in real cigarettes prices for 10% led to the decrease in cigarettes consumption in the range from 7.1% to 8.3%.