China’s export-oriented economic expansion has substantially influenced transport-sector CO2 emissions, raising critical concerns about the environmental impacts of sustained industrial growth and global trade integration. Understanding the interplay between macroeconomic dynamics, trade composition, and industrial structure is essential for aligning economic development with climate mitigation objectives. This study examines transport-related CO2 emissions in China over the period 1990–2023, employing a hybrid methodological framework that combines econometric modeling—including Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing, Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS), and Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares (DOLS)—with machine-learning techniques using Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) interpreted through SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP). The analysis confirms a long-run cointegration relationship between transport emissions and the selected macroeconomic variables. Short-run dynamics indicate a strong sensitivity of emissions to GDP growth, while long-run estimates reveal that higher export-to-GDP ratios and industrial value added contribute to reducing transport emissions, reflecting the efficiency gains from industrial upgrading and cleaner trade practices. By contrast, the expansion of medium- and high-technology exports increases emissions due to the energy- and logistics-intensive nature of high-value goods. The XGBoost model achieves high predictive performance, with an out-of-sample R2 of 0.9975 and a Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of 87.16, confirming the dominant contribution of medium- and high-technology exports to transport-sector emissions. The results underscore the critical role of aligning trade structure, industrial productivity, and low-carbon logistics within China’s policy agenda. Implementing strategies that enhance industrial energy efficiency and develop sustainable transport infrastructure can substantially reduce the environmental impacts associated with export-driven economic expansion.

Objectives To examine the association between cigarette price increase and youth smoking initiation in Bosnia and Herzegovina (B&H), and to assess additional factors—including parental smoking, peer influence, pocket money, anti-tobacco media exposure and smoking in school environments—that potentially affect smoking initiation among adolescents. Design A pseudopanel study using WHO Global Youth Tobacco Survey (GYTS) data from two compatible surveys conducted in 2018 (Republic of Srpska) and 2019 (Federation of B&H). A split-population duration model was employed to estimate the hazard of youth smoking initiation. Setting Primary and secondary schools across two entities in B&H, covering both urban and rural areas. Participants A total of 9702 students aged 13–15 years completed the surveys. Inclusion criteria involved being enrolled in grades 7–9 of primary school or the first year of secondary school. No additional exclusion criteria were applied beyond incomplete or invalid survey responses. Interventions None. Primary outcome measure Self-reported smoking initiation, defined as having tried or experimented with cigarette smoking, even one or two puffs. Results A 10% increase in cigarette prices was associated with a 4.9% reduction in the probability of youth smoking initiation (price elasticity of −0.491, p<0.001). Exposure to antitobacco media messages was linked to a lower likelihood of smoking initiation. Conversely, parental smoking, peer influence, observing smoking within school premises and having greater disposable pocket money all showed significant positive associations with youth smoking initiation. Conclusions Raising cigarette prices constitutes an effective measure to discourage smoking initiation among youth in B&H, operating both directly and indirectly through reductions in parental and peer smoking. Nonetheless, non-price factors play a substantial role, highlighting the complexity of adolescent smoking behaviour and the necessity for a comprehensive, multifaceted tobacco control strategy. Trial registration Not applicable (observational study).

Regardless of the geopolitical and economic challenges the world as well as the European Union (EU) face, it appears that these issues have not, in the slightest, affected the EU's commitment to the green transition. The European Commission continues to provide strong support to member countries in implementing reforms that encourage the green transition. In conditions of sluggish economic growth, the investments in the green transition are characterized as a significant driver of economic growth. This paper analyzes and evaluates the implications of the EU's green transformation on the economic development of the Western Balkans (WB), with a special focus on the Green Deal and climate neutrality. The Green Deal represents the EU's key strategy for achieving climate goals and transitioning to a sustainable, green economy. Through an analytical approach, the impacts of the green transformation and related policies on the economic, social, and environmental aspects of the region are explored, considering the global Green Economy Index. The research methodology includes cluster analysis and analysis of the green economy index to assess the correlation between factors of the green economy and economic development, considering financial, institutional, and legal aspects of the Green Deal. Additionally, a comparison of development according to the Green Economy Index is applied to identify the position, potential, but also limitations of the Western Balkans in this context. Key indicators of the green economy, such as investments in renewable energy sources, energy efficiency, and sustainable infrastructure, are analyzed in terms of their impact on macroeconomic indicators such as gross domestic product per capita, unemployment, etc., in the Western Balkans. The paper identifies a range of opportunities for economic development, including increasing investments in renewable energy sources and developing sustainable infrastructure projects, but at the same time recognizes limitations, such as a lack of capacity, financial resources and public sector support to implement sustainable policies. Furthermore, there is a risk of increasing economic and social inequalities in the process of green transformation, as well as potential negative environmental consequences if appropriate measures are not taken.

Circular Economy (CE) and Artificial Intelligence (AI) are two key concepts that can significantly contribute to sustainable development. The first is based on the goal of maximizing resource utilization and minimizing waste, creating conditions for sustainable and environmentally friendly economic development. On the other hand, AI aims to optimize various processes and improve efficiency in the application of CE, providing tools for innovation and enhancement of business processes. The focus of this research is the analysis of performance indicators for the application of Circular Economy (CE), Artificial Intelligence (AI), and Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) in countries with different levels of economic development and within the context of global territorial coverage. Circular Economy is crucial for sustainable development through waste reduction and maximum resource utilization. Countries such as the Netherlands, Denmark, and Germany demonstrate high recycling rates and use of secondary raw materials, while Romania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Albania lag in these aspects. Artificial Intelligence plays an important role in economic growth and innovation. The United States, China, and Japan lead in investments, number of patents, and number of experts in this field, making them leaders in AI technologies. Less developed countries have limited capacities and need international support for the development of this field. Sustainable Development Goals represent a comprehensive approach to economic, social, and environmental progress. Countries with high SDG indices, such as the Netherlands, Denmark, and Germany, successfully implement sustainable development strategies. In contrast, the least developed countries face significant challenges in achieving these goals. This research shows that developed countries are successful in applying Circular Economy and Artificial Intelligence, while less developed countries lag behind and need additional support. Global cooperation and the exchange of knowledge and technologies are crucial for achieving sustainable development and technological advancement in all countries.

With its nominal GDP USD 177.3 billion in 2022, the Hungarian economy is roughly equivalent to the economies of Serbia, Croatia and Slovenia, combined. Yet, these three countries are among the five most important Bosnia and Herzegovina's (B&H) trading partners in exports and imports, while Hungary only ranks eighth among B&H's most significant trading partners. By applying the gravity model, it was found that the basic gravity model (which takes into account only the size of the economy and the distance) is insufficient to explain the volume of trade between Bosnia and Herzegovina and Hungary. Actually, the fact that Bosnia and Herzegovina was once a member state of the Former Yugoslavia still has a significant impact on explaining the international trade of Bosnia and Herzegovina, simultaneously indicating the importance of historical, cultural, and political ties between the countries. The results obtained in this research study pertaining to the ten most significant trading partners of Bosnia and Herzegovina also suggest that the distance between the major cities more strongly influences exports than imports. Taking into consideration the size of the Hungarian economy and the distance, these results suggest that the trade volume between Bosnia and Herzegovina and Hungary is far below the expected level.

The mobility of factors of production from the very beginnings of the theory of the optimal currency area (OCA) stands out as one of the primary mechanisms for achieving a balance of payments, i.e. sustainability of the monetary union (Mundell criterion). However, there is a significant qualitative difference between the monetary union of countries with similar income levels and the one with different development stages Namely, in the first case, labor mobility, as a rule, has short-term economic effects, while it has a longer-term (more negative) impact – especially on the long-run aggregate supply (LRAS). Many Eastern European countries, which expressed a desire to become part of European integration and the monetary union after the communist ruin, experienced this. In a previous paper, the authors set the thesis about “Impossible Trinity of Developing Countries”. In this paper, the aspiration is to confirm the validity of this theory by analyzing Greece within the period 1999-2020, specifically observing the impact of three variables (fiscal policy, social development level, and level of economic freedom) on the emigration of the population under conditions of monetary union and labor force mobility. The results obtained in this research indicate that the fiscal policy in the observed period was the most significant factor in explaining migration trends. The implications for developing countries that are currently entering (such as Croatia) or intend to enter the monetary union with more developed countries in the future are particularly significant.

ABSTRACT The research determines the gap (Great Decoupling) between labour productivity and workers’ compensation in the two blocks of EU countries (Western versus Eastern). The division of countries into two groups provides a basis further to determine whether the previous socio-economic and political evolutionary development of these countries blocks still has a significant impact on the functional distribution of national income, on the extent to which labour productivity growth is transmitted to workers. The results are heterogeneous. In the sample of highly developed Western EU countries where higher levels of labour productivity, as well as high levels of technological development, lead to an increase in labour productivity to be followed by a lower increase in workers’ compensation. On the sample of Eastern EU countries, results indicate different relationships and the strength of causality between productivity and labour compensation. Central-East EU countries had a more positive relationship between real workers’ compensation and labour productivity, compared to the Southeast Europe (Balkan) countries where an increase in workers’ compensation causes a reduction in labour productivity. The results also offer a solid basis for understanding wage/income/productivity relationships d for creating policies for a more efficient distribution of national income.

Background Cigarette use is one of the major risk factors for non-communicable diseases in Bosnia and Herzegovina, with 41.1% of adults being current smokers in 2019 and almost half of current smokers using more than 20 cigarettes per day. Methods This study applies the prevalence-based, cost-of-illness approach to estimate the annual economic cost of smoking in Bosnia and Herzegovina in 2019. Results The study estimates that cigarette use by adults in Bosnia and Herzegovina caused between 24.4% and 42.8% of all deaths in 2019 and a total economic cost of between €367.5 and €635.1 million (2.0%–3.5% of gross domestic product). The direct costs represent the largest share of the total cost (between 1.0% and 1.7% of gross domestic product). Conclusion Cigarette use imposes a significant health and economic burden in the society of Bosnia and Herzegovina. Various tobacco control measures can be implemented to prevent and reduce tobacco consumption and the negative health consequences of tobacco use. Numerous studies have shown taxes on tobacco products are very effective in reducing tobacco use, especially among certain demographic groups, such as youth and low-income individuals. Smoke-free laws have also shown benefits. Other policy measures that can be implemented include restrictions to advertising, limitations on who can purchase tobacco products, how and where they can be purchased, etc. In addition, governments could also implement various education programmes on the negative health consequences of smoking. The results of this study provide information that calls for prompt and strengthened implementation of tobacco control measures to reduce cigarette consumption in the country and improve the health outcomes and productivity of its inhabitants.