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Dragan Gligorić

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With its nominal GDP USD 177.3 billion in 2022, the Hungarian economy is roughly equivalent to the economies of Serbia, Croatia and Slovenia, combined. Yet, these three countries are among the five most important Bosnia and Herzegovina's (B&H) trading partners in exports and imports, while Hungary only ranks eighth among B&H's most significant trading partners. By applying the gravity model, it was found that the basic gravity model (which takes into account only the size of the economy and the distance) is insufficient to explain the volume of trade between Bosnia and Herzegovina and Hungary. Actually, the fact that Bosnia and Herzegovina was once a member state of the Former Yugoslavia still has a significant impact on explaining the international trade of Bosnia and Herzegovina, simultaneously indicating the importance of historical, cultural, and political ties between the countries. The results obtained in this research study pertaining to the ten most significant trading partners of Bosnia and Herzegovina also suggest that the distance between the major cities more strongly influences exports than imports. Taking into consideration the size of the Hungarian economy and the distance, these results suggest that the trade volume between Bosnia and Herzegovina and Hungary is far below the expected level.

Marko Đogo, Dragan Gligorić, Miloš Grujić, Boško Mekinjić

The mobility of factors of production from the very beginnings of the theory of the optimal currency area (OCA) stands out as one of the primary mechanisms for achieving a balance of payments, i.e. sustainability of the monetary union (Mundell criterion). However, there is a significant qualitative difference between the monetary union of countries with similar income levels and the one with different development stages Namely, in the first case, labor mobility, as a rule, has short-term economic effects, while it has a longer-term (more negative) impact – especially on the long-run aggregate supply (LRAS). Many Eastern European countries, which expressed a desire to become part of European integration and the monetary union after the communist ruin, experienced this. In a previous paper, the authors set the thesis about “Impossible Trinity of Developing Countries”. In this paper, the aspiration is to confirm the validity of this theory by analyzing Greece within the period 1999-2020, specifically observing the impact of three variables (fiscal policy, social development level, and level of economic freedom) on the emigration of the population under conditions of monetary union and labor force mobility. The results obtained in this research indicate that the fiscal policy in the observed period was the most significant factor in explaining migration trends. The implications for developing countries that are currently entering (such as Croatia) or intend to enter the monetary union with more developed countries in the future are particularly significant.

Vesna Novakovic, Mirjana Milovanović, Dragan Gligorić

Abstract This paper investigated the opportunities for public sector improvement by digitalization Financial Management and Control (FMC) system in the Western Balkans (WB) countries. Optimizing business processes within public sector through the digitalization of the FMC system offers opportunities for public sector improvement. The idea is to analyze the existing legal solutions on FMC system in the WB countries and evaluate the current level of digitalization of the system to find the abilities for improvement FMC. The data obtained through an interview with management persons in the Ministry of Finance of the WB Countries and key experts who worked on behalf of the EU as expert consultants on EU-funded projects. Also, we use secondary data collected by exploring literature and OECD reports. Since the database is limited, we use descriptive statistics to analyze the data and the case-study method. The digitalization of the entire system presented only at the entity and state level in Bosnia and Herzegovina. The research showed that the development of a quality FMC system can be enabled by the digitalization of the entire system. The main contribution of this paper is its focus on digitalization of FMC system, since there is limited research paper on this subject.

Marko Vladisavljević, J. Zubović, O. Jovanović, M. Djukić, Natasa Trajkova Najdovska, E. Pula, Dragan Gligorić, A. Gjika

Dragan Gligorić, Borce Trenovski, K. Kozheski

Milton Friedman’s traditional claim is that flexible exchange rates facilitate external adjustment by means of their cor- rective movements before the balance of payments crisis occurs. In order to test this hypothesis, we employ the first order autoregression based on the panel data on exchange rate regime and external balance expressed as the share of balance of goods and services in GDP. The sample covers 16 Central and Eastern European (CEE) and 12 Common- wealth of Independent States (CIS) transition countries over the period 2000-2019. The results, which are based on the sample of all transition countries, failed to prove that more flexible exchange rate regimes facilitate external adjust- ment. When the analysis was performed on two groups of countries separately, the results showed that the deficit of balance of goods and services in CIS countries has a higher persistence compared to CEE countries. However, a more flexible exchange rate regime does not facilitate external ad- justment. On the other hand, in CEE countries, the relation- ship between exchange rate regime flexibility and the rate of balance of goods and services reversion exists, proving that Friedman’s hypothesis does hold.

Z. Borović, Dragan Gligorić, Jelena Trivić

Total Factor Productivity (TFP) is the portion of the country's output not explained by the amount of inputs used in production. The main goal of the present paper is to estimate the Total Factor Productivity levels and then determine the long-term impact of Economic freedom on the TFP in ten former socialistic countries, which are full EU members since 2000. To estimate the TFP we have applied the fixed effect panel on standard Cobb-Douglas production function in per capita terms. In the second iteration we have used PMG ARDL model to estimate the long-term impact of economic freedom on the TFP. This research has proven that higher level of economic freedom, which is used as a proxy of the quality of the institutions and institutional framework, caused higher level of total factor productivity in the period 2000-2018 in the case of ten former socialistic countries which are full EU members since 2000. The obtained results enable us an insight in policies which are important for efficiency increase and economic performance. Our finding could be very useful for policymakers, stressing which policies are contributing to efficiency, and which are not. So that policymakers could intervene in the way to increase the quality of institutional framework and economic institutions. Many other studies investigate the TFP and growth, or growth and institutional framework for the countries of Central and East Europe. Our survey is among the first to investigate the long-term impact of the institutional framework and economic institutions on the countries efficiency for this countries. Our survey enables us an insight into the mechanism through which the institutions can positively impact the TFP through increasing the predictability and reducing the uncertainty for CE countries.

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