Long-Horizon Prediction of PM10 Concentrations in Sarajevo Using FB Prophet and SHAP
Air pollution, particularly the concentration of particulate matter ($\mathbf{P M}_{\mathbf{1 0}}$), poses significant risks to human health and the environment. In this study, we employed the FB Prophet forecasting model to predict PM10 levels in Sarajevo and applied SHAP to enhance model interpretability. Using historical meteorological data and PM10 concentration records, we evaluated the model’s performance across three prediction horizons: 30, 60, and 90 days ahead. SHAP analysis identified the key meteorological drivers influencing $\mathbf{P M}_{10}$ concentrations. Accurate long-horizon predictions can support timely planning and decision-making, while also enhancing our understanding of air pollution dynamics in Sarajevo and providing valuable guidance for environmental management and public health strategies.