UK summer heatwaves are dictated by the polar jet stream position and sea surface temperature (SST) variability, affecting the Summer North Atlantic Oscillation (SNAO) index. The SNAO can determine and influence the Central England Precipitation (CEP) and Central England Temperature (CET). A strong and significant negative correlation ( r = −0.63) is found between the SNAO and CEP, but a weaker correlation for the CET. Summers with highly positive SNAO (i.e. 1976 and 2018) are among the driest and warmest on record. In this study, we highlight the roles of large‐scale atmospheric circulations and use of Met Office‐defined weather regimes in understanding UK heatwave characteristics.
Broadcasting meteorology is the part of meteorology which deals with communicating the data and information to the public. Nowadays it has gained momentum in parallel with the rise of extreme weather conditions, providing the beneficial opportunity to inform and educate the public. This implies breaking down abstract terminology and using the most advanced visual aids to simplify the complex language. However, the extreme weather perception is skewed due to climatic and meteorological illiteracy, the inability to comprehend the importance of the planetary energy budget and the overall contribution of greenhouse gases to the climate system. One of the greatest challenges for the broadcast meteorologists is the short lifespan of the forecasts – they may be verified in a few minutes, hours or days. Annually, it is not a rare occurrence that a frontal system is delayed or a convective storm degrades faster or changes the trajectory for which the broadcast meteorologist is crucified by the public. Therefore, narrow space and time references are often the biggest enemies. Another very recent issue is the colour bar scheme choice as the red and pink shades are to be the most fearmongering for the public and often used to be compared with past events. In July 2022, the conspiracy theories skyrocketed when the Met Office announced its first 40 °C in the UK, with the accusation of meteorologists being “harbingers of doom.” However, this was not an isolated case, as in April 2023, due to an exceptional heatwave for the time of the year, meteorologists at AEMET (Spanish Hydrometeorological Service) faced life threats, severely raising the pressure and affecting their contribution to society. Moreover, the probabilistic approach pours the confusion in the traditional weather reports and applications to the end users, often which cannot be perceived by the public to decide whether they will need an umbrella if the rain is expected, or not to stay dry. These issues remain the challenges for the foreseeable future, raising the concerns of presenting factual information, seeking alternative solutions for the numerical values in presenting the data to the public and the role of a broadcast meteorologis
Hurricane Ida ferociously affected many south-eastern and eastern parts of the United States, making it one of the strongest hurricanes in recent years. Advanced forecast and warning tool has been used to track the path of the ex-Hurricane, Ida, as it left New Orleans on its way towards the northeast, accurately predicting significant supercell development above New York City on September 01, 2021. This advanced method accurately detected the area with the highest possible level of convective instability with 24-h lead time and even Level 5, devised in the categorical outlooks legend of the system. Therefore, an extreme level implied a very high probability of the local-scale hazard occurring above the NYC. Cloud model output fields (updrafts and downdrafts, wind shear, near-surface convergence, the vertical component of relative vorticity) show the rapid development of a strong supercell storm with rotating updrafts and a mesocyclone. The characteristic hook-shaped echo signature visible in the reflectivity patterns indicates a signal for a highly precipitable (HP) supercell with the possibility of tornado initiation. Open boundary conditions represent a good basis for simulating a tornado that evolved from a supercell storm, initialized with initial data obtained from a real-time simulation in the period when the bow echo and tornado-like signature occurred. Тhe modeled results agree well with the observations.
A “ No vel Th understorm A lert S ystem” (NOTHAS) has been developed and extensively tested for forecast and warnings of mid-latitude and tropical convective events. The design of the system showed some potential advantages compared to earlier alert systems, mainly in reducing uncertainties in predictions by taking the given maximum hourly local-scale signal. It represents a dynamic tool which allows the use of the probability concept of multivariate distribution and integrating it into general function by taking all convective parameters. It utilizes the latest developed microphysical parameterization scheme using a scale and aerosol awareness convective scheme and the sharpest criteria for mid-latitude storms. NOTHAS shows consistency and some kind of flexibility in post-processing applications, regardless of different parameterizations used in the ensemble or deterministic forecasts. The scientific verification shows a high level of accuracy in all significant scores which indicates that severe weather outlooks produced by NOTHAS for several hours ahead are in good alignment with observed thunderstorm activity. This novel tool shows a good performance which has sufficient merit for further additional testing and system evaluation of different severe mid-latitude and tropical storms, tropical cyclones and other severe weather cases across regions.
In view of the alarming situation related to coronavirus, of particular interest to the public, decision makers, health organizations, experts, professionals (epidemiologists, virologists, infectologists, psychologists, pulmonologists and others), it is also important to obtain seasonal weather outlook with general overview of the weather and climate conditions and how they would potentially affect the state of the COVID-19 transmission because a number of infectious diseases show seasonal features in their incidence. The analysis below represents an attempt to evaluate atmospheric processes that have a different spatiotemporal scale and depend on other modes of climate variability, and patterns of circulation and specific indices that affect seasonal variation and weather characteristics in a region. Based on seasonal outlook, the general impression is that sunny, warmer increase of (1.0 to 2.0°C) and frequently stormy weather conditions expected during May-June 2020 could likely give some optimistic scenario of slowing down the spreading of the virus further. This is confirmed with the further evaluation of the effective reproduction number, that is expected to decrease from 1.8 at middle of April to 1.2 at the end of June 2020. That is approximately 60-70 % reduction during this warmer period. However, the conclusions are still general and should be taken with caution as the situation is changing from day to day and many other factors including climate conditions, population density and medical care quality also play role in virus transmission.
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