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Almir Mustafić

Društvene mreže:

Almir Mustafić, Hamza Preljević

The goal of the paper is to analyze the Sino-Russian relations in Central Asia since the collapse of the Soviet Union. The analysis will briefly touch upon the relations between Beijing and Moscow in general but the focus will remain on their relations in the post-Soviet era in Central Asia. Today, China and Russia are BRICS member states. They are united in opposing US unipolarity and they are among the largest and most populous countries in the world. Their border is over 4.000 km long and they are both veto powers on the United Nations Security Council. However, relations between China and Russia have always been complex. At times they waged wars and had border disputes, only to become close allies shortly after. Period of severe conflicts between 1917 and 1950 was followed by a progressive era of oil exploration, student exchanges and various other partnerships. Their rapprochement ended in 1960 and started again in 2008. But the question is: How long wills the rapprochement last? They currently have many things in common but Central Asia remains a potential area of dispute for both countries. Analyzing some accounts on Chinese investments in Central Asia (e.g. Tiezzi, 2014), it becomes obvious that Beijing is highly unlikely to withdraw from the region in case of Russian pressure. On the other hand, Russia is highly unlikely to continue tolerating the rising Chinese influence in Central Asia, as its role has already been significantly reduced in this region. The pipeline that was supposed to connect Siberia with the Chinese province of Xinjiang has been postponed because Putin believes that it could give China leverage over Russia’s internal, as well as external political processes. Putin’s decision will certainly not stop China’s expansion in Central Asia and the Russian Federation will try to avoid a subordinate position in its former republics. This situation complicates their relationship in Central Asia, especially if growing US investments in the region are taken into account. This is why selecting a single IR theory to analyze the Sino-Russian relations in Central Asia is not a simple task. Considering the current circumstances and initiatives by both countries in their internal affairs, as well as in Central Asia, neoclassical realist approach to Sino-Russian relations might give the best results and it will therefore be applied in this paper.

In less than 50 years China has grown from a poor country to a global power. Export of goods to the developed markets of the West and the insistence on the Five Principles of Peaceful Co-existence have elevated China to the second largest economy in the world. China's development plans function on a basis of a two-way road and the principle behind it is pretty straightforward, energy import and goods export. The scale of diplomatic efforts to strengthen China's relationships with Asian, African and European countries brings astounding results almost on a daily basis. The Chinese mobile providers in Africa had 475 million users in 2013 and the total trade between China and Africa from rose to US$198.49 billion by 2012. Chinese success stories are not too different in Asia and Europe, where they invest billions of dollars in various infrastructure projects. In March 2016, China came up with its most ambitious project, outlining a $50 trillion plan to create a world electricity network that heavily incorporates wind energy from the Arctic and solar energy from the Equator regions. As the report states, the project could come on line by 2050, but the State Grid wants to begin pilot projects within the next 10 years. This paper analyzes the complexity and multidimensionality of the Chinese plans within and outside the scope of the One Belt, One Road initiative and makes an attempt at predicting one of the possible outcomes of the Chinese plans.

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