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Bin Zhou, Archie W Rayner, Edward W Gregg, Kate E. Sheffer, R. Carrillo-Larco, James E Bennett, Jonathan E. Shaw, C. Paciorek et al.

Bin Zhou, Archie W Rayner, Edward W. Gregg, Kate E. Sheffer, R. Carrillo-Larco, James E. Bennett, J. E. Shaw, C. Paciorek et al.

Summary Background Diabetes can be detected at the primary health-care level, and effective treatments lower the risk of complications. There are insufficient data on the coverage of treatment for diabetes and how it has changed. We estimated trends from 1990 to 2022 in diabetes prevalence and treatment for 200 countries and territories. Methods We used data from 1108 population-representative studies with 141 million participants aged 18 years and older with measurements of fasting glucose and glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c), and information on diabetes treatment. We defined diabetes as having a fasting plasma glucose (FPG) of 7·0 mmol/L or higher, having an HbA1c of 6·5% or higher, or taking medication for diabetes. We defined diabetes treatment as the proportion of people with diabetes who were taking medication for diabetes. We analysed the data in a Bayesian hierarchical meta-regression model to estimate diabetes prevalence and treatment. Findings In 2022, an estimated 828 million (95% credible interval [CrI] 757–908) adults (those aged 18 years and older) had diabetes, an increase of 630 million (554–713) from 1990. From 1990 to 2022, the age-standardised prevalence of diabetes increased in 131 countries for women and in 155 countries for men with a posterior probability of more than 0·80. The largest increases were in low-income and middle-income countries in southeast Asia (eg, Malaysia), south Asia (eg, Pakistan), the Middle East and north Africa (eg, Egypt), and Latin America and the Caribbean (eg, Jamaica, Trinidad and Tobago, and Costa Rica). Age-standardised prevalence neither increased nor decreased with a posterior probability of more than 0·80 in some countries in western and central Europe, sub-Saharan Africa, east Asia and the Pacific, Canada, and some Pacific island nations where prevalence was already high in 1990; it decreased with a posterior probability of more than 0·80 in women in Japan, Spain, and France, and in men in Nauru. The lowest prevalence in the world in 2022 was in western Europe and east Africa for both sexes, and in Japan and Canada for women, and the highest prevalence in the world in 2022 was in countries in Polynesia and Micronesia, some countries in the Caribbean and the Middle East and north Africa, as well as Pakistan and Malaysia. In 2022, 445 million (95% CrI 401–496) adults aged 30 years or older with diabetes did not receive treatment (59% of adults aged 30 years or older with diabetes), 3·5 times the number in 1990. From 1990 to 2022, diabetes treatment coverage increased in 118 countries for women and 98 countries for men with a posterior probability of more than 0·80. The largest improvement in treatment coverage was in some countries from central and western Europe and Latin America (Mexico, Colombia, Chile, and Costa Rica), Canada, South Korea, Russia, Seychelles, and Jordan. There was no increase in treatment coverage in most countries in sub-Saharan Africa; the Caribbean; Pacific island nations; and south, southeast, and central Asia. In 2022, age-standardised treatment coverage was lowest in countries in sub-Saharan Africa and south Asia, and treatment coverage was less than 10% in some African countries. Treatment coverage was 55% or higher in South Korea, many high-income western countries, and some countries in central and eastern Europe (eg, Poland, Czechia, and Russia), Latin America (eg, Costa Rica, Chile, and Mexico), and the Middle East and north Africa (eg, Jordan, Qatar, and Kuwait). Interpretation In most countries, especially in low-income and middle-income countries, diabetes treatment has not increased at all or has not increased sufficiently in comparison with the rise in prevalence. The burden of diabetes and untreated diabetes is increasingly borne by low-income and middle-income countries. The expansion of health insurance and primary health care should be accompanied with diabetes programmes that realign and resource health services to enhance the early detection and effective treatment of diabetes. Funding UK Medical Research Council, UK Research and Innovation (Research England), and US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Bin Zhou, James E Bennett, Aidan P Wickham, Rosie K. Singleton, Anu Mishra, R. Carrillo-Larco, Nayu Ikeda, Lakshya Jain et al.

Bin Zhou, James E. Bennett, Aidan P Wickham, Rosie K. Singleton, Anu Mishra, R. Carrillo-Larco, Nayu Ikeda, Lakshya Jain et al.

Summary Background Adiposity can be measured using BMI (which is based on weight and height) as well as indices of abdominal adiposity. We examined the association between BMI and waist-to-height ratio (WHtR) within and across populations of different world regions and quantified how well these two metrics discriminate between people with and without hypertension. Methods We used data from studies carried out from 1990 to 2023 on BMI, WHtR and hypertension in people aged 20–64 years in representative samples of the general population in eight world regions. We graphically compared the regional distributions of BMI and WHtR, and calculated Pearson’s correlation coefficients between BMI and WHtR within each region. We used mixed-effects linear regression to estimate the extent to which WHtR varies across regions at the same BMI. We graphically examined the prevalence of hypertension and the distribution of people who have hypertension both in relation to BMI and WHtR, and we assessed how closely BMI and WHtR discriminate between participants with and without hypertension using C-statistic and net reclassification improvement (NRI). Findings The correlation between BMI and WHtR ranged from 0·76 to 0·89 within different regions. After adjusting for age and BMI, mean WHtR was highest in south Asia for both sexes, followed by Latin America and the Caribbean and the region of central Asia, Middle East and north Africa. Mean WHtR was lowest in central and eastern Europe for both sexes, in the high-income western region for women, and in Oceania for men. Conversely, to achieve an equivalent WHtR, the BMI of the population of south Asia would need to be, on average, 2·79 kg/m2 (95% CI 2·31–3·28) lower for women and 1·28 kg/m2 (1·02–1·54) lower for men than in the high-income western region. In every region, hypertension prevalence increased with both BMI and WHtR. Models with either of these two adiposity metrics had virtually identical C-statistics and NRIs for every region and sex, with C-statistics ranging from 0·72 to 0·81 and NRIs ranging from 0·34 to 0·57 in different region and sex combinations. When both BMI and WHtR were used, performance improved only slightly compared with using either adiposity measure alone. Interpretation BMI can distinguish young and middle-aged adults with higher versus lower amounts of abdominal adiposity with moderate-to-high accuracy, and both BMI and WHtR distinguish people with or without hypertension. However, at the same BMI level, people in south Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean, and the region of central Asia, Middle East and north Africa, have higher WHtR than in the other regions. Funding UK Medical Research Council and UK Research and Innovation (Innovate UK).

Nowell H. Phelps, Rosie K. Singleton, Bin Zhou, Rachel A Heap, Anu Mishra, James E. Bennett, C. Paciorek, Victor P F Lhoste et al.

Summary Background Underweight and obesity are associated with adverse health outcomes throughout the life course. We estimated the individual and combined prevalence of underweight or thinness and obesity, and their changes, from 1990 to 2022 for adults and school-aged children and adolescents in 200 countries and territories. Methods We used data from 3663 population-based studies with 222 million participants that measured height and weight in representative samples of the general population. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends in the prevalence of different BMI categories, separately for adults (age ≥20 years) and school-aged children and adolescents (age 5–19 years), from 1990 to 2022 for 200 countries and territories. For adults, we report the individual and combined prevalence of underweight (BMI <18·5 kg/m2) and obesity (BMI ≥30 kg/m2). For school-aged children and adolescents, we report thinness (BMI <2 SD below the median of the WHO growth reference) and obesity (BMI >2 SD above the median). Findings From 1990 to 2022, the combined prevalence of underweight and obesity in adults decreased in 11 countries (6%) for women and 17 (9%) for men with a posterior probability of at least 0·80 that the observed changes were true decreases. The combined prevalence increased in 162 countries (81%) for women and 140 countries (70%) for men with a posterior probability of at least 0·80. In 2022, the combined prevalence of underweight and obesity was highest in island nations in the Caribbean and Polynesia and Micronesia, and countries in the Middle East and north Africa. Obesity prevalence was higher than underweight with posterior probability of at least 0·80 in 177 countries (89%) for women and 145 (73%) for men in 2022, whereas the converse was true in 16 countries (8%) for women, and 39 (20%) for men. From 1990 to 2022, the combined prevalence of thinness and obesity decreased among girls in five countries (3%) and among boys in 15 countries (8%) with a posterior probability of at least 0·80, and increased among girls in 140 countries (70%) and boys in 137 countries (69%) with a posterior probability of at least 0·80. The countries with highest combined prevalence of thinness and obesity in school-aged children and adolescents in 2022 were in Polynesia and Micronesia and the Caribbean for both sexes, and Chile and Qatar for boys. Combined prevalence was also high in some countries in south Asia, such as India and Pakistan, where thinness remained prevalent despite having declined. In 2022, obesity in school-aged children and adolescents was more prevalent than thinness with a posterior probability of at least 0·80 among girls in 133 countries (67%) and boys in 125 countries (63%), whereas the converse was true in 35 countries (18%) and 42 countries (21%), respectively. In almost all countries for both adults and school-aged children and adolescents, the increases in double burden were driven by increases in obesity, and decreases in double burden by declining underweight or thinness. Interpretation The combined burden of underweight and obesity has increased in most countries, driven by an increase in obesity, while underweight and thinness remain prevalent in south Asia and parts of Africa. A healthy nutrition transition that enhances access to nutritious foods is needed to address the remaining burden of underweight while curbing and reversing the increase in obesity. Funding UK Medical Research Council, UK Research and Innovation (Research England), UK Research and Innovation (Innovate UK), and European Union.

Bin Zhou, Kate E. Sheffer, James E. Bennett, Edward W. Gregg, G. Danaei, Rosie K. Singleton, J. E. Shaw, Anu Mishra et al.

Fasting plasma glucose (FPG) and hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) are both used to diagnose diabetes, but these measurements can identify different people as having diabetes. We used data from 117 population-based studies and quantified, in different world regions, the prevalence of diagnosed diabetes, and whether those who were previously undiagnosed and detected as having diabetes in survey screening, had elevated FPG, HbA1c or both. We developed prediction equations for estimating the probability that a person without previously diagnosed diabetes, and at a specific level of FPG, had elevated HbA1c, and vice versa. The age-standardized proportion of diabetes that was previously undiagnosed and detected in survey screening ranged from 30% in the high-income western region to 66% in south Asia. Among those with screen-detected diabetes with either test, the age-standardized proportion who had elevated levels of both FPG and HbA1c was 29–39% across regions; the remainder had discordant elevation of FPG or HbA1c. In most low- and middle-income regions, isolated elevated HbA1c was more common than isolated elevated FPG. In these regions, the use of FPG alone may delay diabetes diagnosis and underestimate diabetes prevalence. Our prediction equations help allocate finite resources for measuring HbA1c to reduce the global shortfall in diabetes diagnosis and surveillance. Analysis of HbA1c and FPG levels across 117 population-based studies demonstrates regional variation in prevalence of previously undiagnosed screen-detected diabetes using one or both measures and suggests that use of elevated FPG alone could underestimate diabetes prevalence in low- and middle-income countries.

Background The 10-item Perceived Stress Scale (PSS-10) has not been translated into Bosnian, nor has a study been conducted employing a sample of family medicine physicians and nurses to examine the instrument's reliability, validity, and factorial structure. Thus, the goal of this study was to investigate the reliability and construct validity of the Bosnian version of the PSS-10 among family medicine professionals. Study design Cross-sectional descriptive study provided among healthcare professionals in family medicine, using Google forms questionnaire (PSS-10) in Bosnian language. Methods Translation of PSS-10 in Bosnian is performed according to the proposed set of standardized guidelines. The questionnaire was sent on the email addresses of family physicians and nurses in whole Bosnia and Herzegovina. The collected data were subjected to reliability testing, exploratory and confirmatory factor analysis, which tested three alternative plausible models suggested by the extant literature: single factor, correlated two-factor and bifactor. Results A total of 272 out of 440 (RR = 61.3) nurses and physician working in family medicine in Bosnia and Herzegovina completed the PSS-10 Bosnia and Herzegovina version (BH). Participants were aged 25 to 69, with a mean age of 44.7 (±10.55). Most participants were women (86.8%) and physicians (58.8%) with specialisation in family medicine (43%). The overall Cronbach's alpha was 0.87 and the test–retest reliability coefficient was 0.88. Exploratory Factor Analysis yielded 2 factors with eigenvalues of 4.77 and 1.35, accounting for 61.2% of variance. Factor 1 consisted of 6 items representing ‘’perceived distress'’, whereas Factor 2 consisted of 4 items representing ‘’perceived coping’’. The Confirmatory factor analysis indicated a very good fit of this bifactor model to this sample. Conclusions Our results implies that the PSS-10-BH, as a bifactor model with good reliability and validity, may accurately measure the stress levels of family medicine physicians and nurses.

P. Davies, Igor Aluloski, Diyora Aluloski, Jelena Brcanski, Aliaksandr Davidzenka, A. Durdyeva, Saida Gayrat Umarzoda, Kemal Goshliyev et al.

Background: To assess readiness to achieve the WHO Global Strategy targets for HPV vaccination and cervical screening and to guide capacity building, the current status of these services in 18 Eastern European and Central Asian countries, territories and entities (CTEs) was evaluated. Methods: In order to assess the current status of HPV vaccination and cervical cancer screening in these 18 CTEs, a 30 question survey tool was developed, covering: national policies, strategies and plans for cervical cancer prevention; status of cancer registration; status of HPV vaccination; and current practices for cervical cancer screening and treatment of precancerous lesions. As cervical cancer prevention comes within the mandate of the United Nations Fund for Population Development (UNFPA), the UNFPA offices in the 18 CTEs have regular contact with national experts who are directly involved in cervical cancer prevention actions and are well placed to provide the data required for this survey. Working through the UNFPA offices, the questionnaires were sent to these national experts in April 2021, with data collected from April to July 2021. All CTEs returned completed questionnaires. Results: Only Armenia, Georgia, Moldova, North Macedonia, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan have implemented national HPV vaccination programmes, with only the last 2 of these reaching the WHO target of 90% of girls fully vaccinated by age 15, while rates in the other 4 range from 8%-40%. Cervical screening is available in all CTEs but only Belarus and Turkmenistan have reached the WHO target of 70% of women screened once by age 35 and again by age 45, while rates elsewhere range from 2%-66%. Only Albania and Turkey follow the WHO recommendation to use a high-performance screening test, while the majority use cervical cytology as the main screening test and Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan use visual inspection. No CTEs currently operate systems to coordinate, monitor and quality assure (QA) the entire cervical screening process. Conclusions: Cervical cancer prevention services in this region are very limited. Achieving the WHO Global Strategy targets by 2030 will require substantial investments in capacity building by international development organisations.

Anu Bin Andrea Honor Rosie K. Rodrigo M. Kate E. Chris Mishra Zhou Rodriguez-Martinez Bixby Singleton Car, Ashutosh Mishra, Bin Zhou, A. Rodriguez-Martinez, Honor Bixby, Rosie Singleton, R. Carrillo-Larco, Kate E. Sheffer et al.

The advantage of living in cities compared with rural areas with respect to height and BMI in children and adolescents has generally become smaller globally from 1990 to 2020, except in sub-Saharan Africa. Optimal growth and development in childhood and adolescence is crucial for lifelong health and well-being^ 1 – 6 . Here we used data from 2,325 population-based studies, with measurements of height and weight from 71 million participants, to report the height and body-mass index (BMI) of children and adolescents aged 5–19 years on the basis of rural and urban place of residence in 200 countries and territories from 1990 to 2020. In 1990, children and adolescents residing in cities were taller than their rural counterparts in all but a few high-income countries. By 2020, the urban height advantage became smaller in most countries, and in many high-income western countries it reversed into a small urban-based disadvantage. The exception was for boys in most countries in sub-Saharan Africa and in some countries in Oceania, south Asia and the region of central Asia, Middle East and north Africa. In these countries, successive cohorts of boys from rural places either did not gain height or possibly became shorter, and hence fell further behind their urban peers. The difference between the age-standardized mean BMI of children in urban and rural areas was <1.1 kg m^–2 in the vast majority of countries. Within this small range, BMI increased slightly more in cities than in rural areas, except in south Asia, sub-Saharan Africa and some countries in central and eastern Europe. Our results show that in much of the world, the growth and developmental advantages of living in cities have diminished in the twenty-first century, whereas in much of sub-Saharan Africa they have amplified.

M. L. Iurilli, Bin Zhou, J. Bennett, R. Carrillo-Larco, Marisa K. Sophiea, A. Rodriguez-Martinez, Honor Bixby, Bethlehem D Solomon et al.

From 1985 to 2016, the prevalence of underweight decreased, and that of obesity and severe obesity increased, in most regions, with significant variation in the magnitude of these changes across regions. We investigated how much change in mean body mass index (BMI) explains changes in the prevalence of underweight, obesity, and severe obesity in different regions using data from 2896 population-based studies with 187 million participants. Changes in the prevalence of underweight and total obesity, and to a lesser extent severe obesity, are largely driven by shifts in the distribution of BMI, with smaller contributions from changes in the shape of the distribution. In East and Southeast Asia and sub-Saharan Africa, the underweight tail of the BMI distribution was left behind as the distribution shifted. There is a need for policies that address all forms of malnutrition by making healthy foods accessible and affordable, while restricting unhealthy foods through fiscal and regulatory restrictions.

Š. Cilović-Lagarija, Nino Hasanica, Maida Mulić, M. Radojicic, S. Branković, A. Pilav, S. Huseinagic, S. Musa

Background: The organization of health care system on Cantonal level with the coordination from Federal level represents a real situation with the possibility of decentralization of health care system according to the experiences of developed countries. Objective. To make an overview of the situation at the primary and hospital health care level with the aim of assessing the existing human resources and capacity of health care institutions in FB&H, with which we entered in COVID-19 pandemic. Methods. This retrospective study presents the efficiency of health care in FB&H measured by number of medical doctors, and other medical staff during the time period of five years. Data of the Institute for Public Health FB&H were used. The Institute for Public Health FB&H is authorised by the law to conduct and implement statistical research in the field of health care in line with relevant laws and by-laws. The Institute is obliged to report on organisational structure, human resources and medical equipment. Results. Presented data include the number of health care employees in medical institutions in FB&H in the period 2015-2019 per 100,000 inhabitants and their numbers in primary health care, family medicine, secondary and tertiary level of health care in 2019. The study also presents the number of doctors of medicine, specialists and medical residents in FB&H, the number of nurses of all profiles and levels of education as well as medical staff and other employees in the public health care system in FB&H in 2019. Conclusions. The COVID-19 pandemic in FB&H has confirmed the fact that human resources in health care are insufficient, especially in the field of public health and epidemiology. The availability of these health facilities and human resource is not uniform throughout the FB&H, which may affect the capacity of the health system in some parts of the FB&H to meet the needs of providing services during COVID-19 pandemic.

Š. Lagarija, Nino Hasanica, M. Radojičić, E. Begović, Maida Mulić, B. Mijović, A. Pilav, D. Bardehle et al.

Seila CiloviC-lagarija1, NiNo HaSaNiCa2,3, MilaN radojiCiC4, elMa SokiC-BegoviC5 , Maida MuliC6, BiljaNa MijoviC7 , aida Pilav8, doriS BardeHle9, SaNjiN MuSa1 1Institute for Public Health of FB&H, Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina 2Institute for Health and Food Safety Zenica, Institute for Public Health, Bosnia and Herzegovina 3Department of Healthcare, Faculty of Medicine, University of Zenica, Bosnia and Herzegovina 4Institute for Public Health of Herzegovina-Neretva Canton, Bosnia and Herzegovina 5Ministry of Health of Federation of Bosnia and Hercegovina 6Faculty of Medicine, University of Tuzla, Tuzla, Bosnia and Herzegovina 7Faculty of Medicine, University of East Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina 8Institute for Public Health of Sarajevo Canton, Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina 9Foundation of Men ́s Health Berlin; Germany

Despite many efforts to diagnose and treat preventable cardiovascular diseases (CVD), more specifically to detect known risk factors, these diseases continue to be the leading cause of morbidity and mortality. Bosnia and Herzegovina belongs among the high-risk countries with standardized death rate (SDR) of 385 per 100 000 inhabitants in 2018. Two leading causes of death are acute myocardial infraction, with rate around 90 deaths per 100 000 inhabitants and stroke with the rate around 80 deaths per 100 000 inhabitants in one year. Both incidents are preventable. Digital interventions are necessary for strengthening of the healthcare system. Benefits of eHealth could be seen in transmission of customized health information for different audiences: transmission of health-event alerts to a specified population group; transmission of health information based on health status or demographics; alerts and reminders to clients; transmission of diagnostic results (or of the availability of results) or even notifications and reminders for appointments, medication adherence, or follow-up services. Successful implementation of digital health requires multidisciplinary approaches, from mass dissemination of recommendations through public health education programs directly in the field, to clinical treatments for patients. All this requires the involvement of numerous actors, from the strategic to the operational level of management within the healthcare system in the country.

A. Rodriguez-Martinez, Bin Zhou, Marisa K. Sophiea, J. Bentham, C. Paciorek, M. L. Iurilli, R. Carrillo-Larco, J. Bennett et al.

BACKGROUND Comparable global data on health and nutrition of school-aged children and adolescents are scarce. We aimed to estimate age trajectories and time trends in mean height and mean body-mass index (BMI), which measures weight gain beyond what is expected from height gain, for school-aged children and adolescents. METHODS For this pooled analysis, we used a database of cardiometabolic risk factors collated by the Non-Communicable Disease Risk Factor Collaboration. We applied a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends from 1985 to 2019 in mean height and mean BMI in 1-year age groups for ages 5-19 years. The model allowed for non-linear changes over time in mean height and mean BMI and for non-linear changes with age of children and adolescents, including periods of rapid growth during adolescence. FINDINGS We pooled data from 2181 population-based studies, with measurements of height and weight in 65 million participants in 200 countries and territories. In 2019, we estimated a difference of 20 cm or higher in mean height of 19-year-old adolescents between countries with the tallest populations (the Netherlands, Montenegro, Estonia, and Bosnia and Herzegovina for boys; and the Netherlands, Montenegro, Denmark, and Iceland for girls) and those with the shortest populations (Timor-Leste, Laos, Solomon Islands, and Papua New Guinea for boys; and Guatemala, Bangladesh, Nepal, and Timor-Leste for girls). In the same year, the difference between the highest mean BMI (in Pacific island countries, Kuwait, Bahrain, The Bahamas, Chile, the USA, and New Zealand for both boys and girls and in South Africa for girls) and lowest mean BMI (in India, Bangladesh, Timor-Leste, Ethiopia, and Chad for boys and girls; and in Japan and Romania for girls) was approximately 9-10 kg/m2. In some countries, children aged 5 years started with healthier height or BMI than the global median and, in some cases, as healthy as the best performing countries, but they became progressively less healthy compared with their comparators as they grew older by not growing as tall (eg, boys in Austria and Barbados, and girls in Belgium and Puerto Rico) or gaining too much weight for their height (eg, girls and boys in Kuwait, Bahrain, Fiji, Jamaica, and Mexico; and girls in South Africa and New Zealand). In other countries, growing children overtook the height of their comparators (eg, Latvia, Czech Republic, Morocco, and Iran) or curbed their weight gain (eg, Italy, France, and Croatia) in late childhood and adolescence. When changes in both height and BMI were considered, girls in South Korea, Vietnam, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and some central Asian countries (eg, Armenia and Azerbaijan), and boys in central and western Europe (eg, Portugal, Denmark, Poland, and Montenegro) had the healthiest changes in anthropometric status over the past 3·5 decades because, compared with children and adolescents in other countries, they had a much larger gain in height than they did in BMI. The unhealthiest changes-gaining too little height, too much weight for their height compared with children in other countries, or both-occurred in many countries in sub-Saharan Africa, New Zealand, and the USA for boys and girls; in Malaysia and some Pacific island nations for boys; and in Mexico for girls. INTERPRETATION The height and BMI trajectories over age and time of school-aged children and adolescents are highly variable across countries, which indicates heterogeneous nutritional quality and lifelong health advantages and risks. FUNDING Wellcome Trust, AstraZeneca Young Health Programme, EU.

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