We examine the relation between real interest rate volatility and aggregate fluctuations for a diverse sample of countries. Compiling a new dataset including emerging and advanced countries, the substantial variation in our data yields novel results: (a) stochastic volatility outperforms Markov‐switching in representing interest rates, (b) some advanced economies can be more volatile than emerging markets, and (c) creditors take on more debt following volatility shocks. We show how an equilibrium business cycle model with uncertainty shocks can generate these facts. Sample heterogeneity produces significant parameter differences, playing an important role in distinguishing the effects of volatility shocks.

Theories of international trade have severe difficulties in explaining why, despite i) substantial differences in factor-proportions across industries and ii) considerable cross-country differences in capital-labor ratios, the iii) the evidence for factor-proportions trade is rather weak. We propose a simple explanation of this well known finding: standard trade theories treat important forces such as the distribution of productivity within the economy as exogenous. We argue instead that the productivity allocation is endogenous and counter-balances factor-proportion differentials be- tween countries. Consequently, comparative advantage across countries of different development levels is negligible and this is why the incentives for trade are low.

This paper investigates the effects of public debt and distortionary labour taxation on the long-run behaviour of Irish relative non-traded goods prices. We highlight that higher public debt, acting through higher taxes, has an equivocal impact on the relative supply of non-traded goods and, correspondingly, relative prices. Our empirical analysis for Ireland suggests that taxes and public debt play significant roles in the long run, comoving negatively with the relative price of non-tradables. Accordingly, shifts in public debt and taxation bear implications for the country’s international price competitiveness.

This paper provides a microfoundation of the neoclassical growth theory. To rationalize a substantial share of labor in income despite ongoing automation of tasks, we present a simple model in which demand shifts toward goods of increasing sophistication along a vertically differentiated production structure. Automation of more advanced goods requires increasingly sophisticated capital which remains scarce along the growth path. This is why labor maintains a substantial share in income independent of core parameter assumptions. While our model features an entirely different mechanism, we show that its aggregate representation is the one of a neoclassical model with labor-augmenting technical change.

Employing relatively novel computational techniques, this paper examines the relation between real interest rate volatility and macroeconomic dynamics for a diverse panel of countries. Empirically, we find that interest rate volatility is quite high and persistent overall, with estimates exhibiting non-negligible heterogeneity across countries. Moreover, we highlight that volatility increases at higher interest rate levels, while it is negatively correlated with measures of macroeconomic performance such as output, consumption and investment. Our analysis demonstrates that the empirical facts can be generated by a DSGE model augmented with stochastic volatility shocks.

Following standard macroeconomic theory, a non-increasing long-run share of labor in income combined with a capital-labor substitution elasticity of less than unity implies that productivity growth should be labor-augmenting. Employing an industry decomposition for the U.S., we find that technical progress is factor neutral. However, we stress potential inflation measurement errors manifested in the form of non-positive long-term productivity growth in a number of industries. We illustrate that estimates of the bias of technical change are quite sensitive to these measurement issues. If aggregate inflation is annually overstated by as little as a third of a percentage point, technical progress is already over 50 percent higher in the labor-intensive sector than in the capital-intensive sector. Thus, even the presence of small positive inflation biases could very well mean that technical change is notably labor augmenting.