This study aims to identify the impact of macroeconomic and market variables on the Bosnian and Herzegovinian stock market. Two stock market indices on the capital market of Bosnia and Herzegovina are considered: the SASX-30 and BIRS. At the same time, macroeconomic and market variables include turnover (TRN), market capitalization (MC), exports (EXP), imports (IMP), gross domestic product (GDP), consumer price index (CPI), and foreign direct investment (FDI). The study adopts panel regression analysis for the period from 2013 to 2022. The results of the panel regression analysis showed that export and import values have the strongest influence on the movement of returns for the SASX-30 and BIRS stock market indices in the capital market of Bosnia and Herzegovina. On the other hand, the variables achieved the lowest significance: turnover, market capitalization, foreign direct investments, and consumer price index.
The efficient functioning of the repo market and repo operations is of essential importance for the financial stability and monetary policy of the country, but on the other hand, excessive use of the repo market can affect the increase of systemic risk, which was demonstrated during the recent financial crisis. The main goal of this research is to investigate the scientific and professional literature in the field of repo transactions, and to analyze the development of repo transactions on the EU market, as well as the current level of development of repo transactions on the financial market in Bosnia and Herzegovina and the stability of repo transactions for commercial banks and other participants in order to maintain liquidity on the repo market.
The primary objective of this paper is to identify factors that have a statistically significant impact on the exposure of banks in Bosnia and Herzegovina to interest rate risk and its effect on business profitability indicators. Therefore, this paper investigates the impact of interest rate risk on the performance of banks in Bosnia and Herzegovina between 2014 and 2024. The least squares panel regression model predicts the return on assets and the return on equity of banks in Bosnia and Herzegovina as a function of interest rate risk, which is indexed by the ratio of loans to assets, the average lending ratio, and the risk of interest rate diversification. Empirical findings in the paper revealed that the independent variable, average lending ratio as a measure of interest rate risk based on the method of least squares, has a significantly positive influence on the first and second dependent variables, that is, ROA and ROE, with a significance of less than 5%. The correlation between the risk of interest diversification and the first indicator of profitability (ROA) is positive with a significance of less than 5%, while the correlation between the risk of diversification of interest and the second indicator (ROE) is positive but with a significance of more than 5%. On the other hand, a negative correlation was recorded between the loan-to-assets ratio and the ROA indicator, with a significance greater than 5%. Also, a positive correlation was achieved between the loan-to-assets ratio and the ROA indicator with a probability greater than 5%.
This paper aimed to examine specific factors that influence and have prognostic power on the profitability of selected insurance companies in the Republic of Serbia. Panel data were used for four insurance companies operating in the Republic of Serbia from 2013 to 2022, to estimate a linear model between the determinants that are theoretically expected to affect the performance and profitability of insurance companies. The findings of the paper revealed that company size according to all three methods (method of least squares, method of fully modified least squares, and robust method of least squares) has a significantly positive influence on the profitability of insurance companies. Also, the growth rate of the premium according to the fully modified least squares method has a positive (significant) impact on the profitability indicator, i.e. ROA. Seen from the other side, the weakest i.e., negative (significant) impact on the profitability of insurance companies in the Republic of Serbia was achieved by the independent variable expense ratio.
This paper investigates the impact of explanatory variables that determine the financial stability of the banking sector in Bosnia and Herzegovina, and the possibility of controlling credit risk, which is a threat to the stability of the financial system for the period from 2009 to 2019 on a quarterly basis. Correlation and panel regression analysis are also applied in this paper. The selected independent (explanatory) variables are the growth rate of savings of the household sector, the growth rate of foreign direct investments, the growth rate of exports, the growth rate of total loans, the growth rate of non-per- forming loans, the growth rate of capital adequacy ratio, and unemployment growth rate. The GDP growth rate will be used as the dependent variable. The research results showed that the most significant impact on the GDP growth rate was recorded by the following variables: the growth rate of foreign direct investment, the growth rate of exports and the growth rate of total loans. On the other hand, the following variable recorded the most significant negative impact: the growth rate of the household sector. The study also shows that there is a positive causal relationship between the growth rate of non-performing loans and the growth rate of unemployment.
Value changes in the real estate market affect both the quality of bank loan portfolios and financial stability and the real economy. The Republic of Serbia is one of the countries facing an upward trend in demand for housing. This paper investigates the impact of macroeconomic and banking variables on the real estate price index in Serbia for the period from 2014 to 2023 on a quarterly basis. Also, panel regression and correlation analysis are applied in this research. The selected independent (explanatory) variables are the gross domestic product, the consumer price index, the interest rate on bank loans, the exchange rate of the domestic currency against the Euro and household saving. The research results showed that the independent variable consumer price index had the most significant impact on the housing price index. On the other hand, the following independent variables had the most significant negative impact on the dependent variable (housing price index): interest rate on bank loans and the domestic currency against the Euro.
In terms of both developed and developing countries, banking regulations have a very important place for regulatory authorities and investors. The study aims to examine the effects of regulations on banking performance and profitability. The effects of regulatory indicators such as capital adequacy, liquidity, and total provisions on the return on assets of banks are examined. In this study, Annual data set of 53 banks operating in selected Balkan countries and Turkey was constructed for the study, and analysis estimation using the System Generalized Moments Method (SGMM) were carried out. In addition, GDP, Inflation, Total Assets, and Budget deficits are used as control variables. According to the findings obtained from the study, it has been ascertained that the primary determinant impacting the return on assets is capital adequacy as per the regulatory criterion. Apart from this, it has been concluded that liquidity, which is one of the other regulatory indicators, has a positive and a negative effect on its counterparts in terms of its effects on return on assets. According to the research analysis applied in the study, it has been concluded that the regulatory indicators increase the profitability of capital adequacy and liquidity.
The weighted average cost of capital is the rate that companies must pay to shareholders and creditors. Therefore, it is a risk-adjusted discount rate for the company's cash flows. The paper will calculate the weighted average cost of capital for a selected group of companies listed on the Sarajevo and Banja Luka Stock Exchanges, as well as profitability indicators such as: ROA, ROE and net profit margin. Therefore, the main goal of this paper is to investigate whether there is interdependence in the movement of the weighted average cost of capital and profitability indicators of the selected group of companies in the stock market indices SASX-30 and BIRS. The research results show that the WACC ranges from a minimum of 5.11% to a maximum of 10.87%. Likewise, the research results show that there is a negative connection and correlation between WACC on the one hand and a selected group of profitability indicators on the other hand.
The importance of minimum capital adequacy ratios in preventing banks from going bankrupt and losing depositor money is underscored by their ability to absorb a reasonable amount of losses. This work contributes to the literature on bank capital and, in particular, delivers a thorough analysis of bank capital in Bosnia and Herzegovina and Croatia contexts. This analysis refers to the strand of literature on non-performing loans and bank capital that has been of continuous interest to researchers. It is a relevant area of research because it discusses the most important part of the banking business, especially in the context of increasing global competition and crises. In this scientific area, we inquire whether and how leverage rate, gross domestic product rate, and return on equity affect the capital adequacy ratio. In this respect, this study advances the literature of effects on bank capital that have not been analysed by other scholarly contributions, especially as it discusses the impact of leverage rate, gross domestic product rate, and return on equity in the context of the entire banking systems of Bosnia and Herzegovina and Croatia. The study is limited to a six-year period from 2016 to 2021. Empirical evidence based on the application of a model suggests that both countries resulted in different correlations between countries. Modelling was done to determine the relationship between the independent variables LR, GDP Growth, ROE, and effect on CAR. In addition, the capital adequacy ratio proves to be more and more important for banks.
The main goal of this research is to evaluate the returns and risks of the following types of assets: Bitcoin, EUR Stoxx 50, gold, bonds: government bonds ICE Bof A 1-10 Year excluding Italy and Greece and the corporate bond index ICEB of A 1-10 Year AA. The paper tested a total of ten portfolios according to different scenarios for digital and financial assets. Also, in the paper, greater measures of risk and return were calculated with the aim of forming an optimal portfolio with minimal risk. The results of this research revealed that the correlation between Bitcoin and other forms of financial assets is generally low and negative, which can be a good instrument for portfolio diversification, and positively affect portfolio performance. Also, the results of this study showed that in terms of volatility and return measure of a total of ten portfolios, the second portfolio (whose structure consists of Bitcoin, Euro Stoxx 50, gold, government bonds ICE Bof A 1-10 Year - excluding Italy and Greece and the corporate index bond ICEBof A 1-10 Year AA) is the most optimal portfolio. The findings of this research can serve in risk and loss assessments of portfolio managers, investors, and regulators.
Non-performing loans are loans that do not generate income for banks and represent one of the most sensitive categories of a bank’s balance sheet. Their increase can affect both the liquidity and the solvency of banks. This paper investigates internal (specific) and external (macroeconomic) determinants of non-performing loans of the banking sector in Bosnia and Herzegovina for the period 2008: Q1 - 2020: Q4 including correlation and regression analysis. The results of the research showed that the following independent variables have the strongest impact on non-performing loans as a dependent variable: unemployment rate, provisions to non-performing loans, and real GDP growth rate. On the other hand, the independent variable return on equity had the weakest impact on non-performing loans.
Banks play an important role in a country's economy because increasing savings and capital accumulation has a positive effect on economic growth and employment through the banks' resource transfer function. The purpose of this study is to establish a cause-and-effect relationship between bank profitability and economic growth in three selected countries, including Bosnia and Herzegovina, Serbia, and Croatia. In this research, a panel causality test is applied to examine the cause-and-effect relationship for the time period from the first quarter of 2008 to the fourth quarter of 2020. Empirical findings in this study showed that the profitability of banks in selected developing countries (Bosnia and Herzegovina, Serbia and Croatia) has a positive effect on economic growth. Also, this research provides insight into in-depth analysis in terms of considering several countries through the use of a panel causality test, for the purpose of studying the relationship between bank profitability and economic growth.
The level of banking concentration has increased significantly in the banking sector of Bosnia and Herzegovina as a result of the successful completion of privatization, the formation of new banks, the slow transition and rapid liberalization. Rapid liberalization has introduced strong competition in the domestic banking sector on the one hand, while on the other hand there has been an increased concentration of some larger banks in the system.The main goal of this research will be to analyze the correlation between the basic measures of the oligopolistic position of banks and their impact on improving or deteriorating the performance of domestic banks, such as return on assets (ROA), return on equity (ROE) and net interest margin (NIM). The survey period covers the years from 2008: Q1 to 2020: Q4 on a quarterly basis. The following variables were used as independent variables in the model: HHI market concentration index in the context of loans, share of foreign banks in the total ownership structure of banks (FB), bank size (BS) and growth rate of total loans (GRTL).The interdependence of variables in this study was tested via the OLS regression model (FE model as well as GLS model). Both models were suitable for obtaining results via the Hausman test. The results of the research showed that the strongest (positive impact) on the first dependent variable, i.e., on return on assets (ROA), was achieved by the following independent variable: foreign-owned banks (FB). On the other hand, the strongest negative impact was recorded by the following independent variables: the size of the bank (BS) as well as the market concentration index for loans (HHI_loans). The strongest (positive impact) on the second dependent variable, i.e., return on equity (ROE), was achieved by the following independent variables: growth rate of total loans (GRTL) as well as the variable related to foreign-owned banks (FB). On the other hand, the strongest negative impact was recorded by the following independent variables: market concentration index for loans (HHI_loans) and bank size (BS). The third independent variable, i.e., net interest margin (NIM), had the strongest positive impact on the following independent variables: foreign-owned banks (FB) and credit growth rate (GRTL). On the other hand, the strongest negative impact was recorded by the following independent variables: concentrations for credit placements (HHI) and bank size (BS).
Bancassurance is a term used to describe a partnership or relationship between a bank and an insurance company, where the insurance company uses a banking sales channel to sell insurance products. The implementation of banking insurance activities in the financial system contributes to the strengthening of the competitive environment, the development of new insurance products, and greater satisfaction of customer needs. The main goal of this research is to point out the importance and significance of the application of bank insurance for both financial institutions, through the analysis of financial performance indicators of both banks and insurance companies, through the aspect of income and expenses. Also, this research presents an econometric analysis that tests the impact of other income, profit/loss growth rate, as well as the cost-income ratio as independent variables and their impact on the dependent variable, i.e., return on assets of banks in Bosnia and Herzegovina. The results of the econometric analysis showed that other revenues have the greatest impact on the profitability of banks in B&H. The weakest impact on bank profitability has a cost-to-earnings ratio.
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