Predicting Purified Terephthalic Acid (PTA) Price Using Regression Analysis and Same Slope Model
In this paper, the relationship between PTA (purified terephthalic acid) price and oil price was tested and a linear regression model was established. The following prediction models were tested on a historical oil price time series: the Same Slope, the Weighted Moving Averages, the Simple Exponential Smoothing, and the Exponential Smoothing With Additive Trend or the Holt's model. In order to determine the unknown parameters of the used models, nonlinear mathematical programming was used. Performance analysis on the given time series showed that the Same Slope model yielded better results than other tested models. The oil forecast given by the Same Slope model was then combined with the initial regression equation to establish the final PTA predicting model.