The Comparative Analysis of Export Competitiveness of ex-Yu Countries

The paper deals with the analysis of ex-Yugoslav countries' export performance (Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Macedonia, Montenegro, Serbia and Slovenia) over the period 2006-2013. The paper is aimed at assessing these countries’ export competitiveness and determining its dynamics in trade with the world. The analysis included the research into and comparison of export characteristics – the volume and dynamics of export flows, geographic and product export structure and concentration, technological export sophistication, export specialization expressed through revealed comparative advantage, intensity and direction of change in export structure. In order to gain a comprehensive insight into export competitiveness, a few indicators were used: Balassa RCA index, Michaely index, Herfindahl-Hirschman concentration indices, etc. The indices were calculated based on the information from relevant databases of the World Bank and International Trade Centre, aggregated at the second and sixth HS2002 level, for the eight-year period and/or for the first and the last year. The research revealed that ex-YU countries’ export performance is generally unsatisfactory, despite the progress that individual countries registered in the observed period. Most countries have comparative advantage in the products of traditional, declining industries, a high share of semiproducts and primary products, and a negligible share of high-technology products in their export portfolio, a stagnating export structure, and a low degree of geographic and product export diversification. Mutual comparisons showed that the group is not homogenous and that, besides the described common characteristics, there are significant differences within the group in certain aspects of export competitiveness. The EU member–states, Croatia and particularly Slovenia, have a series of advantages compared to countries that are candidates and potential candidate. The greatest progress toward the improved export competitiveness was achieved by Serbia, while Montenegro got the poorest rating for export competitiveness.