Prediction of Surgical Treatment in Acute Pancreatitis Using Biochemical and Clinical Parameters

Background: Deep Acute pancreatitis (AP) is an urging cause of hospitalization in the gastroenterology due to different causes and an unpredictable outcome. Known causes are grouped into four main groups: metabolic, mechanical, vascular and infectious. Objective: To determine the role of certain biochemical or radiological parameters as predictors of an involvement of other organs in AP different pathological staging and the surgical outcome in the treatment of AP. Methods: Ninety-seven AP patients hospitalized in General Hospital “Prim.dr Abdulah Nakaš” Sarajevo, in a period between 2016 and 2021 for both sexes, were divided according to the etiological factors of AP into four groups: nutritional factors, biliary concernments, alcohol and morphological changes of the pancreas. Beside laboratory tests, the imaging methods of abdomen (transabdominal ultrasound, abdominal computed tomography) used in determining morphological changes in the pancreas and other organs were analyzed in relation to parameters that predict the need for surgical outcomes. Results: AP etiological factors of patients differ significantly by gender and showed the dominance of dietary factors in female subjects (51%), followed by the presence of concernments in the biliary tract in 36% of cases, and alcohol consumption in male subjects in 28% of cases. The only variable correlated with the indicator of necessity for surgery is the existence of pleural effusion (coefficient of correlation was 0.38; risk ratio was 5.5) resulting that patients with pleural effusion have a 5.5 times higher chance of surgery indication than other patients. Conclusion: The application of simple parameters such as creatinine value with the values of amylases in serum and urine and the presence of pleural effusion confirmed by radiological imaging of the lungs opens the possibility of a simple and effective selection of patients for surgical treatment with a more severe form of AP.