The Potential Impact of Climate Change on the Distribution of Norway Spruce (Picea abies Karst.) in Bosnia and Herzegovina
As forests in Bosnia and Herzegovina cover 2,904,600 ha or 56.7 % of its total area, and since the meteorological data analysis for the period 1961–2014 shows that the mean annual temperature maintains a continuous rise, сlose attention should be paid to these fragile ecosystems. It is important to note that one of the most economically valuable species for forestry in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Norway spruce, is particularly endangered due to its very low drought resistance and spread of various diseases. Comparing the last climate sequence (1991–2019) with the previous one (1961–1990) we found that the spruce-inhabited areas showed an average increase in the values of the Forest Aridity Index of 0.929. As for the Ellenberg’s climate quotient, it is noticeable that climate change is not as strong as in the case of the Forest Aridity Index. Based on projections for the mid- (2041–2070) and late-century (2071–2100) under the RCP 4.5, there will be no change that is likely to significantly affect the distribution of spruce. The predicted rates of decline and altitudinal shifts of favorable habitats are negligible. On the contrary, projections under the RCP 8.5 predict a significant reduction of suitable habitats, both for the existing range of Norway spruce and the entire territory of Bosnia and Herzegovina. Particularly, late-century projection under the RCP 8.5 predicts an almost complete reduction of suitable habitats, while small areas of suitable habitats at higher elevations will remain intact.