Possible consequences of climate change on viticulture in Bosnia and Herzegovina

The paper analyzes the possible changes in the vineyard index via multi-criterion climatic classification system for grape-growing regions on the basis of results and a regional climate model EBU-POM for the periods 2001-2030 and 2071-2100 under A1B and A2 scenarios. Three indexes of climate multi-criterion classification of vineyards, Heliothermical index, drought index and night freshness index were calculated based on a set of values, mean daily temperature, maximum daily temperature, minimum daily temperature and daily rainfall accumulation for locations of Banja Luka, Sarajevo and Mostar. As demonstrated, the trends are expected to have a significant influence on viticulture sector in Bosnia and Herzegovina. The most significant changes are expected in the second half of the 21st century. The increasing temperatures, which are extending the growing season, and the increasing accumulation of heat influencing the yield and the potential of ripening grapes are expected as well. As a result of the change of climate conditions, the existing vine varieties and more arid and warm climate types should be taken into account during the design of adequate measures for irrigation and protection of potential diseases and pests. However, it should be noted that the modified climatic conditions are likely to introduce new vine varieties typical of regions with drier and warmer climate, but this is currently very improbable in Bosnia and Herzegovina. It may be expected that the border areas in which it is possible to grow a particular variety will be shifted to higher altitudes.