Probabilistic analysis of press fit joint load carrying capacity
This paper presents a procedure for probabilistic analysis of joint load carrying capacity as a randomly variable quantity on the example of a cylindrical press fit joint of a bronze ring with teeth and a worm gear hub. By fitting the set of results obtained by a series of FEM simulations for characteristic values of input parameters (interference and material characteristics), the coefficients of a second-order multidimensional polynomial as a "response surface" for the output quantity - joint load carrying capacity were determined. By MC simulation, generating random parameters according to the known laws of statistical distributions and evaluating the previously obtained higher-order polynomial, a statistical set was obtained, the processing of which determines the distribution parameters of the randomly variable output quantity. The described procedure is applicable to a wide class of probabilistic design problems that are analyzed using FEM analysis.