PP.01.09: DEVELOPMENT AND VALIDATION OF A RISK SCORING MODEL TO PREDICT NET ADVERSE CARDIOVASCULAR OUTCOMES AFTER CABS IN PATIENTS WITH HYPERTENSION RATIONALE AND DESIGN OF THE POP-HT STUDY
Objective: The patients with coronary artery bypass surgery (CABS) have physiological changes in coronary artery structure. In these patients, risk factors for coronary artery disease have different influence of new coronary events expression, than in patients without CABS. The prognosis of patients after coronary artery CABS has been noted in many studies, but there were no comprehensive hypertension (HT) risk model to predict net adverse cardiovascular events (NACE) after CABS. The primary hypothesis of the POP-HT study (PostOperative Prognosis-HyperTension study) is that an accurate risk prediction may be achieved by using clinical, angiographic, and procedural variables available 30-day after intervention. Design and method: The present single-center, longitudinal, cohort study will include 3082 consecutive patients with hypertension, undergoing CABS. The primary end-points of the trial (NACE) include major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE). A logistic regression model will be developed to predict 30-day, 1-year, 5-year, 10-year, 15-year and 20-year NACE after CABS. A risk score derived from study set data will be validated using validation set data. Results: Until April 1, 1988, 2984 patients have been enrolled. Thirty-day follow-up is available in 2912 patients, 1-year in 2836 patients, 5-year in 2618 patients, 10-year in 2445 patients, 15-year in 2112 patients and 20-year in 1845 patients. Conclusions: The POP-HT study is designed to develop an accurate risk scoring system, using variables available 30-day after CABS, to predict long-term adverse outcomes in patients with hypertension.