Phylogeography and distribution modelling reveal the history and future of a saproxylic beetle of European conservation concern
The biogeography of European forests presents many interesting case studies, as inferred from phylogeography, contemporary population genetics, and distribution modelling of saproxylic species. Here, we pose four main hypotheses: (i) the phylogeographic paradigm known for temperate species in Europe is also applicable for saproxylic taxa; (ii) current expansion is occurring only in some genetic lineages; (iii) genetic diversity decreases from east to west, reflecting differences in forest naturalness and management; and (iv) climatic changes will force a northward range shift.